|
 |
|
BROCK ASSOCIATES: YIELD EXPECTATIONS FALL
Jun. 26, 2012
Source: The Brock Report
Chances for an above-trend U.S. corn yield likely already are gone. Most in the grain trade no longer see the average yield coming close to USDA's above-trend estimate of 166 bu./acre.
Brock Associates has lowered its national yield estimate to 160 bu. and others have already gone lower - we've recently seen several estimates in the 158-to-159 bu. range, so it's possible the futures market may already be trading a yield below 160 bu.
Agronomists note this year's advanced crop development makes it more difficult to measure the impact of June heat on corn yields, as ear formation already is well underway in many fields. The number of kernel rows per ear typically depends more on genetic factors than environmental conditions, but the number of kernels per row can be strongly influenced by environmental conditions.
"Severe drought stress during the two weeks prior to pollination can reduce kernels per row and lead to a reduction in grain yield," says Ohio State University Agronomist Peter Thomison. Research done in Iowa indicates yield can potentially be reduced 5% to 10% if corn is stressed for four consecutive days at the 12- to 14-leaf stage.
|
|
|
|
|
