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BROCK ASSOCIATES: HOG HERD LIQUIDATION STARTS
Source: The Brock Report

USDA's Sept. 28 Hogs and Pigs report confirmed that producers started to liquidate herds during the third quarter.

USDA pegged the U.S. sow herd 0.3% below a year earlier and nearly 1.3% below the June 1 level.

In actual numbers, the U.S. sow herd shrunk by 74,000 head between June 1 and Sept. 1.

The drop in sow numbers came even though U.S. sow slaughter ran slightly below a year earlier during the June-August quarter.

Sow replacement dropped with the number of gilts in the slaughter mix up sharply from last year.

Stronger liquidation could be seen this fall with producers facing a lot of red ink in the fourth quarter.

However, the USDA numbers also showed U.S. hog supplies have tightened more quickly than expected with producers speeding marketings.

Market hog supplies should now drop below a year earlier in the fourth quarter, supporting prices.


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