FARM FUTURES RELEASES 2014 PLANTING INTENTIONS FORECAST
Aug. 27, 2013
Source: Farm Futures magazine
The stressful 2013 growing season has farmers pondering significant changes to crop rotations next spring, according to Farm Futures first survey of 2014 planting intentions.
Results were released this morning, on the opening day of the 2013 Farm Progress Show, the nation's largest outdoor farm show, held Aug. 27, 28 and 29 in Decatur, Ill.
2014 Soybean and wheat acres forecasted up
Producers said they want to boost soybean and wheat acreage next year, cutting back on corn.
The Farm Futures survey, traditionally the first in the industry to project new crop seedings, showed 2014 soybean acreage could hit 78.75 million acres, up 2% from this year. Wheat planting, which will begin soon, could rise a similar percentage, increasing to 57.76 million acres.
After planting - or trying to plant - the most corn in 60 years this spring, farmers surveyed reported they wish to cut back on acreage for 2014, putting in 94.11 million, down 3.4% from recent estimate of this year's commitment. Actual acreage of all crops remains uncertain due to adverse spring conditions that prevented growers from putting in 7.7 million acres this year, according to preliminary figures released by USDA's Farm Service Agency.
Farmers increased soybean plantings in many parts of the U.S. in recent years, a trend that may continue in 2014. "Some growers want to cut back on corn to improve rotations, after years of pushing that crop," said Farm Futures Senior Editor Bryce Knorr, who conducted the survey of more than 1,350 growers July 22 to Aug. 5. "And we're continuing to see farmers switch to soybeans on the fringes of the traditional Midwest growing region."
Price signals from 2013 futures contracts are one lure towards soybeans. The ratio of November 2013 soy-bean futures to December 2013 corn hit an unusually strong 2.77:1 recently, indicating the market was much more concerned about tight soybean supplies hurt by the unusual combination of weather adversities this growing season.
Corn stocks projected up
Corn stocks are expected to be much more available, which also impacts 2014 prices. The ratio of November 2014 soybeans to December 2014 corn hit 2.44:1 recently, a level that begins to favor soybeans, says Knorr.
"Unfortunately, current futures prices suggest both corn and soybeans are at risk of losing money in Illinois next year," says Knorr. "But corn growers face more risk from corn, due to higher production costs and weaker margins."
Moreover, Knorr's first projections for 2014 crop production, supply and demand suggest losses from corn could grow, even with reduced acreage. "If yields don't suffer much in 2013 and come in at average levels next year, $4 average cash corn prices could be a reality," Knorr says. "Growers we surveyed realize this danger: 84% said they expect prices for 2014 crops to be lower."
Wheat prices incentivise increased plantings
Kansas City July wheat futures remain near $7, an incentive for farmers to add acres. "Moisture is adequate for most of the Plains heading into wheat seeding for the first time since 2010, offering a positive outlook for wheat growers," said Farm Futures market Analyst Paul Burgener. "Increased wheat acres may come at the expense of dryland corn in the Plains, where summer crops have struggled the past couple years."
Burgener will present his outlook for this fall and the coming year daily at the show beginning at 9 a.m. in the Seminar Tent adjacent to the Penton/Farm Progress Hospitality tent; Knorr follows at 1:30 p.m. with his profit and market analysis presentation.
About Farm Futures Magazine
Published nine times annually, plus extra bonus editions in mid-February and December, by Penton/Farm Progress, Farm Futures [www.FarmFutures.com] provides business and management information to large-scale, high-income U.S. farm operators. The publication leads its market segment in producer preference. Get the Farm Futures and Farm Futures Magazine app for your mobile devices by searching for "Farm Futures" in the Android Market or iTunes/Apple App store.
Farm Futures is a Penton/Farm Progress magazine with extensive digital content and resources.