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USDA LOWERS CORN, SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS ESTIMATE
BrownfieldAgNews reports:

USDA has lowered its 2013/14 domestic corn and soybean ending stocks estimates, while raising the projection for wheat.

Corn ending stocks for the current marketing year are seen at 1.792 billion bushels, compared to 1.887 billion in November with increased export, food, and ethanol demand figures cancelling out a slight increase in the import guess. Before the report, the average estimate was 1.861 billion bushels, in a range of 1.737 billion to 2.013 billion. The average farm price is now seen at $4.05 to $4.75 per bushel.

Soybean ending stocks are pegged at 150 million bushels, compared to 170 million a month ago thanks to larger projected crush and export demand offsetting a modest increase for exports. Ahead of the numbers, analysts saw soybeans at 130 million to 170 million bushels, with an average of 154 million bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel.

Wheat ending stocks are expected to be 575 million bushels, compared to 565 million a month ago due to a bigger import estimate. Pre-report projections ranged from 505 million to 570 million bushels, with an average of 553 million. The average farm price is seen at $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel.

For 2012/13, corn ending stocks were 824 million bushels, soybeans were 141 million, and wheat totaled 718 million bushels.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2013/14 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 575 million bushels, compared to 565 million in November and 718 million in 2012/13. USDA raised imports 10 million bushels, to 160 million, putting total supply at 3.008 billion bushels. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel, compared to $6.70 to $7.30 a month ago.

2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.792 billion bushels, compared to 1.887 billion last month and 824 million last marketing year. USDA increased exports by 5 million bushels to 30 million, pushing total supply to 14.842 billion bushels. On the demand side, food, seed & industrial use was raised 50 million to 6.4 billion bushels and ethanol was hiked 50 million to 4.95 billion bushels, taking domestic demand to 11.6 billion bushels, and exports were increased 50 million bushels to 1.450 billion, putting total demand at 13.050 billion bushels. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $4.05 to $4.75, compared to $4.10 to $4.90 in November.

2013/14 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 150 million bushels, compared to 170 million a month ago and 141 million in the previous marketing year. Imports are seen at 25 million bushels, up 10 million on the month, putting total supply at 3.423 billion bushels. The crush was raised 5 million bushels to 1.690 billion and exports were increased 25 million to 1.475 billion bushels, taking total use to 3.274 billion bushels. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $11.50 to $13.50, compared to last month's range of $11.15 to $13.15.

2013/14 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks are pegged at 1.690 billion pounds, compared to 1.635 billion in November and 1.705 billion in 2012/13. Production was raised to 19.435 billion pounds, putting total supply at 21.390 billion, while biodiesel use was slashed by 400 million to 5.2 billion pounds and food, feed & other industrial use was upped 400 million to 13.350 billion, leaving total use at 19.7 billion pounds. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $.38 to $.40 per pound, compared to $.40 to $.44 a month ago.

2013/14 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks came out at 300,000 short tons, compared to 300,000 last month and 275,000 last marketing year. Production is now expected to be 40.160 million short tons, up 100,000, putting total supply at 40.6 million. Domestic disappearance was lowered 150,000 short tons to 29.8 million and exports were raised 250,000, taking total use to 40.3 million short tons. The average 2013/14 farm price is estimated at $400 to $440 per short ton, compared to $375 to $410 in November.

2013/14 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 182.78 million tons, compared to 178.48 million a month ago. Production is now projected at 711.42 million tons, compared to 706.38 million last month, with larger crop guesses for Australia and Canada. Domestic feed use is pegged at 138.77 million tons, compared to 139.27 million in November, and exports are seen at 156.92 million tons, compared to 153.72 million last month.

2013/14 world corn ending stocks are projected at 162.46 million tons, compared to 164.33 million in November. The global crop is estimated at 964.28 million tons, compared to 962.83 million a month ago, with bigger numbers for Canada, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Ukraine cancelling out a slight decrease for the European Union. Domestic feed use is seen at 566.84 million tons, compared to 565.24 million last month, and exports are pegged at 112.16 million tons, compared to 110.39 million a month ago.

2013/14 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 70.62 million tons, a little bit larger than the 70.23 million last month. World soybean production is pegged at 284.94 million tons, compared to 284.94 million a month ago, with a bigger estimate for Argentina, but no change to Brazil. Domestic crush use is seen at 240.27 million tons, compared to 239.57 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 108.77 million tons, compared to 107.83 million in November.


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