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NASA MODELS SHOW CLIMATE CHANGE WILL PRESSURE CROP YIELDS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD
Source: The Chicago Council on Global Affairs news release

By Cynthia Rosenzweig, Senior Research Scientist, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

This post is part of a series produced by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, marking the occasion of its fifth Global Food Security Symposium 2014 held in Washington, DC.


The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)'s global gridded crop model results, cited in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, show that crop yields without adaptation will decline in large areas of the developing world by the end of the century.

This crop model assessment characterized global crop model agreement for the first time, with more than 70% of the ensemble members (climate-crop model combinations) projecting yield declines in most of Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia (Rosenzweig et al., 2013a).

AgMIP is a global program linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate-impact projections for the agricultural sector.

It aims to identify world food security risks in the face of climate change and improve developed and developing countries' adaptation capacity.

AgMIP supports teams of experts in crop and economic modeling and holds topic-specific and regional conferences as well as an annual Global Workshop that bring together the agricultural modeling community to share interdisciplinary progress and advance ongoing initiatives (Rosenzweig et al., 2013b).


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