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ECONOMIST: AG REMAINS A BRIGHT SPOT IN THE ECONOMY
American Seed Trade Association (ASTA) reports:

Agriculture, with the exception of pork and dairy has been and remains a bright spot in the economy, according to one agricultural economist.

"Agricultural commodities remain an asset, but the U.S. dollar is fluctuating and markets are searching for direction," said Terry Barr, a senior director at CoBank who spoke June 28, 2010, to seed industry representatives at the American Seed Trade Association's 127th Annual Convention in San Antonio, Texas.

Barr said agriculture is a robust economy and acres are certainly not coming down. "The real challenge is keeping up with the growing demand on the ethanol side," he said. "As businesses providing a service, know that you are selling to a sector that is financially strong." The challenges, he pointed out, are consolidation and the expectations put on technology.

"Will technology be able to produce that next big jump in yield that is being discussed by the industry," Barr asked. The industry is making great strides and advances and has many tools in its pockets, he said. Barr explained that we can continue to see an acreage shift in the United States.

"As the technology changes, the pattern of where you plant certain crop changes and creates more opportunities," he pointed out. "The market is so strong on the grain side, I think it is going to be a huge plus for the grain industry."

Barr recognized the potential for the seed industry to take the technology to a global level. "There are a lot of opportunities, especially in the Asian markets," he said.

In terms of the general economy, Barr expects it to take several years to recover and hopes that the economy recovers slowly and over a period of several years instead of rapid growth increasing the likelihood of a double-dip recession.

He said the housing market and the unemployment rate remain sore spots in the economy; however land values are only going to increase with time.

"In general, volatility in agriculture is not going to change," Barr said. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Keep this in mind as you make decisions and move forward during the next several months."
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