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August 8, 2016

In the News

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WEEKLY COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS

Nearby
Futures
Weekly
Change
Friday's
Close
Year
Ago
Corn-0.10253.24253.7275
Soybeans-0.287510.03759.9175
Wheat+0.08254.16005.0200
Cattle+4.60117.68148.68
Hogs-1.5367.4580.22
Cotton+2.4876.6464.75
Milk+0.2617.1016.34
Crude Oil+0.2041.8045.15
Corn and soybean futures extended their slide, dropping on a favorable U.S. crop outlook and technical selling. Corn fell to new contract lows. Weather forecasts continue to indicate adequate rainfall and a lack of intense heat for most of the Midwest through August, as fears of drought for this summer have failed to materialize. Some areas of concern do remain, including South Dakota, eastern Indiana and Ohio. Amid the mostly bearish supply news, export demand as of late has been bullish for soybeans. Through Friday, USDA had reported new soybean export sales for eight straight days, to China or “unknown destinations.” The demand helped the soybean market trim losses late in the week. Wheat futures set new contract lows in Chicago and tumbled to a new 10-year-low on a front-month basis, but rebounded and ended up on the week after nearby September found support around the $4 level. Fundamentally the market was supp orted by declining expectations for Western European crops, particularly France and Germany. France's agriculture ministry projects the country's wheat crop yield at a 30-year low. Cotton futures meanwhile surged, breaking above resistance at the 75.00 level in the December contract amid uncertainty about the U.S. crop and solid exports, along with optimism about improved Chinese demand.

In the livestock complex, lean hog futures tumbled again to fresh contract lows. Excess supplies hang over the market, and the decline in cash hog prices has been relentless in recent weeks. While futures are technically oversold, there is no sign yet they are bottoming. Live cattle and feeder cattle futures surged on Monday for the second week in a row and then steadily strengthened throughout the week. A stabilizing wholesale beef market underpinned prices, and feeder cattle were further supported by expectations of a big corn crop. Cash cattle trade in the southern Plains at $118-$119 was up $2-$3 from the prior week.

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Better than normal plant greenness continues to dominate the central Great Plains states, with lower than normal greenness continuing throughout the southern states. Conditions in the southern states are highly variable and should be assessed by evaluating the YieldMetrix maps at a county scale. Lower than normal conditions also continue in the western Dakotas and eastern Montana and Wyoming and throughout parts of Ohio and Indiana.

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