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September 17, 2018

In the News

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WEEKLY COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS

Nearby
Futures
Weekly
Change
Friday's
Close
Year
Ago
Corn-0.15253.51753.5425
Soybeans-0.13508.30509.7600
Wheat+0.00255.11504.4300
Cattle+3.85113.80106.92
Hogs+0.5856.2359.02
Cotton-0.1681.2369.12
Milk-0.2616.2415.91
Crude Oil+1.4468.9950.35
Corn and soybean futures were down on the week, pressured by bearish crop expectations and demand concerns in the face of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. The big surprise of the week was USDA's national average corn yield estimate in its monthly crop report. The estimate of 181.3 bushels per acre was up 2.9 bushels from last month, whereas the trade was expecting a slight decline. Although the estimate was bearish, usage is also up. USDA's soybean yield estimate was also higher than expected at 52.8 bushels per acre, up 1.2 from the prior month, and even if the yield comes in shy of that, domestic carryout will be burdensome. Technically both corn and soybeans made new weekly low closes for the move, and cash prices for soybeans remain extremely weak. Pessimism about U.S.-China trade relations continues to hang over soybeans. Wheat futures were pressured by USDA's surprise increase in expected Russian production, which reinforced the gloomy U.S. export demand outlook. Cotton futures were pressured by a surprise increase in U.S. planted acres in the USDA report, and traders shrugged off damage to the North Carolina crop from Hurricane Florence.

In the livestock complex, live cattle futures surged more than $3.00, with most of the gains coming on Friday on active technically-driven buying and anticipation of stronger Plains cash trade. Hog market strength and strong U.S. beef exports helped support live cattle despite weaker wholesale beef prices. Feeder cattle futures jumped roughly $4.50-$8.50 on the week on the fed cattle futures strength and USDA's huge corn crop estimate. Hopes for a new round of U.S.-China trade talks gave lean hog futures a boost on Wednesday, and while pessimism re-emerged late in the week, African swine fever concerns remained supportive. The hog market's reaction to Hurricane Florence and its impact on North Carolina hog production appeared to be mixed.


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