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October 15, 2018

In the News

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WEEKLY COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS

Nearby
Futures
Weekly
Change
Friday's
Close
Year
Ago
Corn+0.05503.73753.4900
Soybeans-0.01508.67509.9200
Wheat-0.03755.17254.3050
Cattle-1.98116.18117.27
Hogs-2.5555.0061.62
Cotton+2.7778.3767.84
Milk-0.2815.7716.11
Crude Oil-2.9771.3750.60
Grain and soybean futures were mixed, as the market was underpinned late in the week by a friendly USDA Crop Report and poor Midwest harvest weather. USDA lowered its corn crop estimate slightly to 14.778 billion bushels, whereas the trade was expecting another increase. Significant cuts were made in Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska. USDA left its soybean crop estimate essentially unchanged, reinforcing that the 2018-19 carryout will be large. However, with one of the rainiest Septembers on record in several states followed by a wet start to October and even snow in the western Corn Belt, concern about soybean quality and yield loss is growing. Export demand remains a supportive factor for corn and a negative factor for soybeans and wheat. Cotton futures meanwhile surged as Hurricane Michael barreled through southwest Georgia, causing devastating crop losses there before proceeding through the Carolinas, which were still recovering from Hurricane Florence. The West Texas cotton crop also faced threats from excessive rains as well as an unusual mid-October cold snap. Rice futures made a two-month high early in the week before retreating, despite USDA cutting its long-grain production and carryout estimates.

In the livestock complex, live and feeder cattle futures spent most of the week in retreat. Live cattle was pressured by their premium to Plains cash trade early in the week, and late in the week there was pressure from technical selling and a plunge in the stock market. Wholesale beef prices and packer margins eroded slightly during the week, while strong U.S. beef exports are supportive to the complex. Lean hog futures were down on expectations for seasonal increases in hog supplies and demand concerns in the face of the stock market selloff. The CME cash lean hog index had rallied by 53% from Sept. 5 to Oct. 9, but traders are now expecting seasonal weakness.

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