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Drops of Wisdom

Reach the nation's top ag irrigators with Irrigation Extra, the specialized section featured in in Farm Progress' 17 state and regional magazines.
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WEEKLY COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS

Nearby Futures	Weekly Change	Friday's Close	Year Ago
Corn	+0.1700	4.5925	3.5925
Soybeans	+0.3700	9.3150	8.4925
Wheat	+0.0800	5.2300	4.8450
Cattle	+1.47	108.48	105.025
Hogs	+3.60	80.65	70.43
Cotton	-4.14	62.68	88.54
Milk	-0.37	17.52	15.00
Crude Oil	+2.79	60.30	70.33

Grain and soybean futures rallied, with corn and soy leading the way on concerns about U.S. production and technical buying. The markets made multi-week highs, and performed well even in the face of a bearish USDA Supply and Demand report for corn. After a soggy spring that led to historically late planting and lost acres, the Midwest is now facing a hot a dry spell. This poses multiple threats given the lateness of planting and the wet ground into which the crop was planted. Yield expectations have dropped significantly. On the negative side for prices, USDA on Thursday raised its 2018-19 projected carryout to a burdensome 2.34 billion bushels for corn, decreasing both feed and export demand, and hiked 2019-20 corn ending stocks to 2.01 billion bushels. The USDA report was a little more friendly for soybeans, although at a projected carryout of 795 million bushels for 2019-20, there is no danger of tight supplies this year unless the crop is a complete disaster. The USDA report was friendly for wheat and negative for cotton. Cotton futures tumbled to a new contract low and three-year low on a front-month basis, pressured by weak demand and favorable U.S. crop prospects.

In the livestock complex, live cattle were up on the week amid expectations for stronger cash trade. Nearby August futures posted their highest close since mid-May. Gains were capped by soft wholesale beef prices and lackluster July 4 beef clearance. Strong cash trade did emerge on Friday, at $112 in the southern Plains, up $3 from a week earlier. Lean hog futures were choppy, but nearby months rallied on optimism about a turnaround in cash hog markets and a pickup in demand from China. Large supplies continue to hang over the complex, however, as USDA this week projected third-quarter pork production up 7.4% from a year ago.

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