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May 10, 2021

In the News

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WEEKLY COMMODITY HIGHLIGHTS

Nearby
Futures
Weekly
Change
Friday's
Close
Year
Ago
Corn+0.59007.32253.1800
Soybeans+0.555015.89758.4425
Wheat+0.27007.61755.2250
Cattle-0.55116.0393.98
Hogs+3.13112.8563.90
Cotton+1.5889.6655.39
Milk-0.8818.9813.30
Crude Oil+1.2364.8123.55
It was another remarkable week for the grain and oilseeds complex, as corn, soybeans and other markets rocketed up to new contract-and multi-year highs. Fundamentally the complex has support from diminished Brazil corn crop expectations and tight near-term supplies, although interior U.S. basis levels weakened late in the week. The corn market in particular also got a further lift when China re-emerged as a buyer of U.S. corn. The U.S. planting and crop outlook has been mixed, with dryness in many areas remaining the biggest concern, particularly in the western Corn Belt. Technically, while there's no near-term upside objective, corn and soybeans remain vulnerable to a considerable selloff even in just a short-term correction. The wheat market continues to take its cues from corn. Cotton futures also rallied on the week, with support from drought in West Texas, and rice futures surged on outside market support and concerns about global food security. Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday's USDA Supply and Demand report, which will issue the first balance sheet estimates for new-crop corn and soybeans, and is expected to show tight supplies continuing into the new marketing year.

The gains in the grain complex are part of a broader story about inflation concerns. Lean hog futures are also a strong bull market, with June surging to a new 6 1/2 -year high for a most-active contract. The wholesale pork market has led the hog market higher this year and likely still holds the key to when hog prices top out seasonally. After a post-Easter fade during early April, the pork market has come back strongly in part on declining production. Hog prices are feeling some pressure from poor packer operating margins which have packers cutting back on slaughter. Beef packer margins, by contrast, are phenomenal and topped an estimated $700 per head last week.

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