USDA RELEASES ENDING GRAIN AND LIVESTOCK STOCKS
Jan. 12, 2018
Source: USDA report
This month's 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month as an increase in yield to a record 176.6 bushels per acre is partially offset by a 0.4-millionacre reduction in harvested area. Among the major producing states, yields are estimated to be record high in Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio. FSI is raised 10 million bushels, reflecting an estimated amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose during September-November that was above expectations. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5,550 million based on indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks. With supply rising and use falling, corn stocks are up 40 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.25 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint based on observed prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 0.3 million tons higher to 1,324.2 million. This month's 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption and greater trade relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Russia, Vietnam and the Philippines more than offsetting an increase for Pakistan. Russia's corn production is down based on harvest results to date. Vietnam corn production is reduced as the impact of heavy rain during the growing season in the northern production area was worse than previously expected. Barley production is down as a reduction for Russia more than offsets an increase for Argentina.
Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include lower corn exports for Russia, partially offset by an increase for Thailand. Brazil's 2016/17 corn exports are reduced based on observed shipments to date for the local marketing year that started in March 2017. Imports for 2017/18 are lowered for Iran but increased for Vietnam and the Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher than last month, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 206.6 million, are up 2.5 million from last month.
U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is estimated at 131.3 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by increases for canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4,392 million bushels, down 33 million on lower yields. Harvested area is estimated at 89.5 million acres, up fractionally from the previous forecast. Yield is estimated at 49.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels, led by reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 1,950 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2,160 million, reflecting lagging sales commitments through December and increased competition with higher soybean production and export forecasts for Brazil. Ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous forecast.
The 2017/18 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $8.80 to $9.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast of 32 to 35 cents per pound is lowered 1 cent at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $295 to $335 per short ton.
Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States. The Brazil soybean crop is increased 2 million tons to 110 million reflecting higher yield estimates in recent government reports. Soybean production for Argentina is reduced 1 million tons to 56 million on lower area planted to date, particularly in northern Argentina. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Ukraine and lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina.
Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 176.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Lower U.S. soybean and Australian rapeseed shipments are partly offset by increased soybean exports for Brazil and rapeseed for Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 111.2 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly on higher soybean stocks for Brazil and the United States and higher rapeseed stocks for Australia. Partly offsetting are lower soybean stocks for Argentina and sunflowerseed stocks for the EU.
Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 20 million bushels and reflects disappearance for June - November as indicated by the December 1 and revised September 1 stocks released in the NASS Grain Stocks report. All wheat exports are unchanged at 975 million bushels; however, a 10 million bushel decrease in Hard Red Spring exports is offset by 5-million-bushel increases each for Soft Red Winter and White wheat. Total supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports while production and the season-average farm price are unchanged.
Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are lowered 0.8 million tons on reduced beginning stocks, more than offsetting increased production. World beginning stocks are lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on a large 2016/17 production cut for Australia, reflecting updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data. World production for 2017/18 is raised 1.8 million tons led by a 2.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.8-million-ton increased for Pakistan. Partially offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction for the EU. All these production changes reflect updated government data. Global exports are lowered 1.3 million tons led by reductions for Australia and the EU that reflect decreased supplies and increase market competition. Russian exports, in contrast, are raised 1.5 million tons to a record 35.0 million on increased supplies and competitive prices. Global use for 2017/18 is lowered fractionally and ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 268.0 million, which remain record large.
Meat, Eggs and Dairy
The estimate of 2017 total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Based on preliminary data, beef and turkey production estimates are lowered, more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production. The egg production estimate is raised modestly on late-2017 production data. For 2018, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as higher expected pork, beef, and broiler production offsets lower turkey production. The 2018 beef production forecast is raised as higher cattle placements in late 2017 are expected to result in higher fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of 2018. Average carcass weights are also expected to be heavier. USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report on January 31, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2018. The pork production forecast for 2018 is raised. USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 3 percent above 2016 which supports a higher first half production forecast. The report also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 3 percent in the first half of the year which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, supports higher second-half production. Forecast broiler production is raised for 2018 on favorable returns. Turkey production is reduced based on continued weak demand. The egg production forecast is raised slightly.
Beef imports are increased for 2017 on increased shipments from Oceania. No change is made to exports. Pork exports for 2017 are raised reflecting the pace of trade to date but no change is made to pork imports. Broiler imports and exports are raised for 2017, reflecting recent trade data. For 2018, livestock, broiler, and egg trade forecasts remain unchanged from last month.
Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2017 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2018, the cattle price is raised, reflecting early-year price strength. The first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast is raised, reflecting recent price strength and firm demand. First and second quarter broiler and egg price forecasts are raised as well on recent price strength and continued strong demand. Turkey price forecasts for 2018 are lowered on recent price movements and continued weakness in demand.
The milk production estimate for 2017 is reduced on recent data. For 2018, the milk production estimate is reduced on slower anticipated growth in the dairy cow herd combined with continued slow growth in milk per cow. Fat basis imports for 2017 are reduced on slower butter imports, but exports are raised on solid global demand for U.S. butter and other dairy products. Skim-solids basis imports are reduced modestly while exports are raised on strong demand for skim milk powder and several other products. For 2018, the fat basis import forecast is reduced on slowing demand for butter products, while the export forecast is raised on expected robust foreign demand for U.S. fat-containing products. On a skim-solids basis, the 2018 import forecast is reduced on weak demand for U.S. milk protein concentrates. The 2018 skim-solids basis export forecast is raised reflecting stronger demand for a number of products.
Dairy product prices for 2017 are adjusted for December data. For 2018, all dairy product prices are reduced on slowing domestic demand and global competition. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2018 are reduced on lower product prices. The all milk price is lowered to $15.80 to $16.60 per cwt for 2018.
Sorghum production for 2017/18 is estimated 8 million bushels higher as an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre more than offsets a marginal reduction in harvested area. Grain sorghum prices are forecast at $3.15 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.
U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is 178.2 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate and down 20 percent from last year. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,507 pounds per acre, up 46 pounds from the prior estimate. Long-grain production is raised to 127.9 million cwt and medium- and short-grain production is lowered to 50.4 million. All rice domestic and residual usage is increased by 5.0 million cwt to 120.0 million on higher-than-expected usage for August-November as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report. Projected U.S. all rice exports are reduced by 3.0 million cwt to 100.0 million, all for long-grain on slower-than-expected exports to Western Hemisphere markets. Projected 2017/18 all rice ending stocks are reduced 1.8 million cwt to 29.2 million, the lowest level since 2003/04. The projected 2017/18 season-average farm price for all rice is reduced 20 cents at both ends of the range to $12.10 to $13.10 per cwt, primarily due to lower-than-expected long-grain prices reported to date by NASS.
Global 2017/18 rice supplies are increased by 1.3 million tons to 622.8 million, primarily on larger crops for the Philippines and Pakistan. Philippine rice production is projected at a record 12.0 million tons, mainly on larger harvested area, also a record. World 2017/18 consumption increases 1.0 million tons to 481.8 million on higher expected usage in China, Ecuador, Nigeria, Vietnam, and the United States. Global 2017/18 trade is raised to 45.8 million tons on higher exports by China and India more than offsetting lower U.S exports. Trade is slightly below the 2016/17 record of 46.0 million tons. World ending stocks are projected fractionally higher to 141.1 million tons for 2017/18 and are at the highest level since 2000/01 with China holding over 66 percent of total stocks.
This month's 2017/18 U.S. cotton forecasts include slightly lower production and ending stocks. Production is reduced 177,000 bales due to small declines in regions outside the Delta. Ending stocks are reduced 100,000 bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. The forecast for the marketing year average price received by producers is raised 3 cents per pound, to a midpoint of 69 cents.
Offsetting changes in foreign production and consumption characterize the global 2017/18 cotton forecasts this month. Global production is raised 1.0 million bales as a 1.4-million bale increase for China is only partly offset by small decreases in India, the United States, and Australia. Global consumption is raised 1.2 million bales largely due to a 1.0-million-bale increase for China. World consumption is forecast to grow at a 5.2 percent annual rate in 2017/18, more than double its long-run level. Projected world ending stocks are changed slightly this month, down 200,000 bales from December, but at 87.8 million bales are still forecast marginally higher than the year before
U.S. sugar supply for 2017/18 is increased by 72,353 short tons, raw value (STRV), mainly due to increases in expected cane sugar production partially offset by a decrease in beet sugar production. Louisiana cane sugar production for 2017/18 is increased by 130,000 STRV to 1.820 million due to a strong harvest campaign that is expected to extend into mid-January, according to industry reporting. Florida cane sugar production is increased by 39,038 STRV to 2.075 million based on processors' estimates of sugar yield per acre made at the end of December. Beet sugar production for 2017/18 is decreased by 102,455 STRV to 5.257 million based on lower sugarbeet production reported by NASS. Additionally, beginning stocks are increased by 15,438 STRV based on inventory revisions submitted by processors to Sweetener Market Data. These supply increases are slightly offset by a reduction of 9,668 STRV due to fewer imports forecast to enter under FTA tariff-rate quotas. U.S. sugar use for 2017/18 is increased by a 50,000-STRV export increase consisting mostly of shipments to Mexico, part of which is expected to be under the U.S. re-export program. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 1.824 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.4 percent.
In Mexico, an increase in imports of 40,000 metric tons (MT) is offset by an increase in exports to non-U.S. destinations. The ending stocks total for 2017/18 remains at 1.008 million MT, an amount to meet sugar supply requirements of domestic consumption before the next season harvest.