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USDA LOWERS CORN YIELD FORECAST BY 2%, SOYBEANS DOWN 3%, PRICES JUMP
AgWeb.com reports:

USDA lowered its overall corn crop production projection by 2% and the soybean projection by 3% in Friday's Crop Production Report, but the outlook for corn is still a record-high 178.5 bu. per acre national estimate.

Traders were watching for signs of whether USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) would account for damage from the Aug. 10 derecho and ongoing Iowa drought in the September report and a reflection of Chinese purchases of U.S. corn in the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE). Ultimately, the storm damage was included in crop estimates, but the trade will have to continue to wait for more China corn trade data.

"In response to the derecho experienced by Iowa producers on August 10, NASS collected harvested acreage information for both corn and soybeans in Iowa," NASS said in a release. "This data was analyzed along with remote sensing and administrative data in preparation for this report. As a result, NASS lowered corn harvested acreage in Iowa by 550,000 acres. Soybean acres were unchanged."

USDA reduced the projected Iowa corn yield by 11 bu. per acre and reduced the overall Iowa soybean yield by 6.9% compared to the previous month's report.

The national projected average corn yield at 178.5 bu. per acre is down 3 bu. from the previous month's estimate, but 11.1 bu. above 2019. USDA is projecting record 2020 yields for Georgia, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The national average soybean yield is pegged at a record 51.9 bu. per acre, up 4.5 bu. from 2019. State records are projected for Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee.

WASDE dropped soy ending stocks by 150 million bu. to 460 million bu.

"That's a positive report (for soybeans.)," says AgriTalk Radio host Chip Flory. "If you take September as a trend-indicating report, it points to tighter supplies ahead."

On the corn supply side of things, WASDE did not provide any more clarity on the impact of corn sales to China.

"On the supply side of the report, many will be disappointed with the World Board's decision to leave China corn imports unchanged at 7 million tonnes," Flory noted.


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