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Best of NAMA 2022

Blog by Keith Good, University of Illinois

Reuters News reported yesterday that, "The area sown with Ukraine's 2022 spring grain crops could fall 39% to 4.7 million hectares due to Russia's military invasion, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Tuesday."

The article stated that, "The consultancy did not give a 2022 grain harvest forecast."

"It also said that around 2 million hectares of winter wheat, barley and rye sown for 2022 harvest could be damaged or unavailable for harvest due to the hostilities and only around 5.5 million hectares of winter grain crops could be threshed.

"'It means 28% losses,' the consultancy said."

The Reuters article added that, "Ukraine traditionally starts spring field work in late February or in March but this year's cold spring delayed that significantly."

Last week, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged farmers to plant as many fields as possible.

And Reuters News reported yesterday that, "Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal said on Tuesday the government would finance a loan programme for farmers worth 25 billion hryvnias ($846 million) as part of a raft of new measures to ease the economic shock of war."

Writing in today's Washington Post, Laura Reiley reported that, "Before the invasion, it was assumed that about 24 million tons of wheat sown last fall would be shipped out of Ukraine starting in the summer, said Joe Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington and former USDA chief economist. The USDA has downgraded that to 20 million, but Glauber said he has heard it could be as little as 6 or 7 million, 'with Russia cutting most of the rail lines down from the main wheat-producing areas to the port, to Odessa and on that side of Crimea.'"

Wall Street Journal writer Carol Ryan reported in today's paper that, "Commercial activity in Ukraine's ports has stopped since Russia's invasion began on Feb. 24, and it will be hard for farmers to harvest their crops later this summer and export grains if fighting cuts them off from the land. Agricultural producers may also face shortages of fuel, which is needed for military use.

"Russian farmers don't face the same physical hurdles, but economic sanctions are already impacting demand for the country's agricultural goods. Skyrocketing insurance premiums for vessels in the Black Sea are also adding to the cost of grain shipments from the region. Last week, price quotes for Russian wheat were $405 a ton compared with $460 and $539 for European Union and U.S. wheat respectively, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture."

To view the complete report, click here.

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