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Blog by Keith Good, University of Illinois

Bloomberg writer Megan Durisin reported today that, "Harvests of some of Ukraine's most important crops could be cut in half this year, threatening its position as a major exporter and exacerbating already tight global supplies.

"Russia's invasion is happening at a crucial time for crops. Ukrainian farmers have just started planting corn and sunflowers, progress of which is being hobbled by field mines and a lack of fuel and fertilizers. For wheat that was sown months before the war, a chunk of the area is occupied by troops.

"With ports mostly shut, farmers are also considering switching to crops more suited to local consumption than for export. Even at this early stage in the growing season the situation looks bleak, with analysts projecting output down between 30% and 55%, depending on the crop. That adds to risks for shortages of key staples and may further raise global food prices already at a record."

“Half of Harvests in Crop Giant Ukraine Could Be Wiped Out by War,” by Megan Durisin. Bloomberg News (April 9, 2022).

And yesterday, Bloomberg writers Kim Chipman, Michael Hirtzer, Megan Durisin, and Tarso Veloso Ribeiro reported that, "The U.S. continued to slash estimates for Ukraine's grain exports as sea routes were curbed following Russia's invasion.

"Ukraine's corn exports will drop by another 4.5 million tons to 23 million tons and wheat exports by 1 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's closely watched World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE. Global wheat stockpiles were revised down to 278.4 million tons, less than expected by a Bloomberg survey."

To view the complete report, click here.

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