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Apr. 4, 2024 by Jason Franken, School of Agriculture, Western Illinois University The USDA's March Hogs and Pigs report places the March 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 74.6 million head, down about 1.6% from last quarter, and up about 0.6% from a year ago, compared to pre-report expectations for just 0.1% higher. The market hog inventory is also about 0.8% larger than a year ago, while the breeding herd, which was expected to be down almost 3%, is down only 2.1%. The number of market hogs weighing over 180 pounds is 0.6% lower than at the same time last year, while inventories are up 0.3% for the 120-179 weight class in contrast to expectations for a 1.0% decrease, making inventories slightly higher than expected for the two upper weight classes, while the two lower weight classes are both up 1.5% from a year ago. Overall, the number of hogs weighing less than 180 pounds is up just 1.2% from this time last year, and these will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from April to August. The increase in lighter weight hogs partly reflects that December-February pig crop is up 1.9% from a year ago, compared to expectations for a 1.4% increase, as a 2.6% decrease in sows farrowed is again more than offset by productivity gains with 11.53 pigs per litter for the period or 4.6% more than a year ago, compared to expectations of just 3.3% higher. Market hogs from this pig crop will arrive at processors from June to August. Relative to actual farrowings last year, spring and summer farrowing intentions are down by about 0.9% and 1.7%, respectively, which should imply somewhat smaller slaughter numbers in subsequent periods, provided decreased farrowings aren't again offset by gains in pigs per litter. Cold stocks of meat appear to be back in a decline. According to the USDA cold storage report, cold stocks of pork at the end of February are down 1% from the previous month and 12% from a year ago. Poultry stocks are down 1% from the prior month and 5% from last year, while beef is down 6% from the prior month and 12% from a year ago. U.S. per capita pork consumption has been trending downward since 2019 with the USDA estimating it to bottom out at 50.2 pounds per person in 2023 and forecasting it to rise slightly to 50.6 pounds per person in 2024. To read the entire report click here. Tweet |
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