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Feb. 20, 2025 Source: Nutrien news release SASKATOON, Saskatchewan -- Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its fourth quarter 2024 results, with net earnings of $118 million ($0.23 diluted net earnings per share). Fourth quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA1 was $1.1 billion and adjusted net earnings per share1 was $0.31. "Nutrien delivered higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes, accelerated operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives and increased downstream Retail earnings in 2024, demonstrating significant progress towards our 2026 performance targets. We took a disciplined and intentional approach to our capital allocation decisions, further optimizing capital expenditures and returning $1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases," commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO. "The outlook for our business in 2025 is supported by expectations for strong crop input demand and firming potash fundamentals. Nutrien has a world-class asset base, and we remain focused on strategic priorities that strengthen our core business and deliver structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow," added Mr. Seitz. Highlights: *Generated net earnings of $700 million ($1.36 diluted net earnings per share) and adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion ($3.47 adjusted net earnings per share) for the full year of 2024. *Retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.7 billion in 2024 supported by higher product margins and lower expenses, as we continue to simplify our business and accelerate downstream network optimization initiatives. *Potash adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.8 billion in 2024 as lower net selling prices more than offset increased sales volumes. We mined 35 percent of our potash ore tonnes using automation in 2024, providing efficiency, flexibility and safety benefits, while supporting our highest annual production levels on record and a reduction in controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne. *Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion in 2024 was relatively flat as lower net selling prices offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Total ammonia production increased in 2024, driven by less maintenance downtime and improved natural gas utilization and reliability at our operations in Trinidad. *Divested non-core assets and equity investments totaling approximately $60 million in 2024, providing incremental cash flow to allocate to high conviction priorities that are core to our long-term strategy. *Repurchased 3.9 million shares for a total of $190 million in the second half of 2024 and an additional 1.9 million shares in 2025 for $96 million as of February 18, 2025. *Nutrien's Board of Directors approved the purchase of up to 5 percent of Nutrien's outstanding common shares over a twelve-month period through the renewal of our normal course issuer bid ("NCIB"), which is subject to acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange. *Nutrien's Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.545 per share. Nutrien continues to target a stable and growing dividend, having now increased the dividend per share by 36 percent since the beginning of 2018. Market Outlook and Guidance Agriculture and Retail Markets Global grain stocks-to-use ratios remain historically low and demand remains strong, providing a supportive environment for ag commodity prices in 2025. We expect US corn plantings to range between 91 and 93 million acres and soybean plantings to range from 84 to 86 million acres in 2025. The projected increase in corn acreage, combined with a shortened fall application season in 2024, supports our outlook for strong North American fertilizer demand in the first half of the year. In Brazil, generally favorable soil moisture conditions and stronger crop prices are expected to lead to an increase in safrinha corn planted acreage of approximately five percent, supporting crop input demand in the first half of 2025. A weaker Australian dollar and strong grain and oilseed export demand is supporting grower economics, and conditions remain positive for 2025 crop input demand. Crop Nutrient Markets Global potash shipments rebounded to approximately 72.5 million tonnes in 2024, driven by improved supply and supportive application economics that contributed to increased demand in key markets such as China, Brazil and Southeast Asia. We forecast global potash shipments between 71 and 75 million tonnes in 2025. The high end of the range captures the potential for stronger underlying global consumption and the lower end captures the potential for reduced supply availability. We anticipate the potential for supply tightness with limited global capacity additions in 2025 and reported operational challenges and maintenance work in key producing regions. Global urea and UAN prices have increased in the first quarter of 2025, driven by strengthening demand in key import markets and restricted supply, including continued Chinese urea export restrictions. Global ammonia prices have trended lower to start the year due to seasonal demand weakness and the anticipation of incremental supply in the US and export capacity from Russia. We expect North American natural gas prices to remain highly competitive compared to Europe and Asia, with Henry Hub natural gas prices projected to average between $3.25 and $3.50 per MMBtu for the year. The US nitrogen supply and demand balance is expected to be tight ahead of the spring application season, as nitrogen fertilizer net imports in the first half of the 2024/2025 fertilizer year were down approximately 60 percent compared to the five-year average. Additionally, nitrogen demand for the spring season is expected to be strong due to the limited fall ammonia application season and higher projected corn acreage. Phosphate fertilizer markets remain firm, particularly in North America where inventories were estimated to be historically low entering 2025. We expect Chinese phosphate exports similar to 2024 levels, with total DAP/MAP exports ranging between 6 and 7 million tonnes, and tight stocks in India to support demand ahead of their key planting season. To read the entire report click here. Tweet |
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