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FARM BUREAU: U.S. HEADING TO RECORD AG TRADE DEFICIT
Jun. 23, 2025
by Faith Parum, Economist, American Farm Bureau Federation
Washington, DC -- Trade policy decisions made in Washington, D.C., will impact farmers and ranchers in the countryside. This Market Intel is part of a series exploring agricultural trade, including the potential impacts of trade policy changes.
The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is widening in 2025, driven by shifting global trade dynamics and rising import demand. USDA's Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2025 report provides projections for exports and imports, offering insight into current trade trends. From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records.
After decades of consistent trade surpluses, U.S. agriculture has been in an agricultural trade deficit since 2022. In fiscal year (FY) 2023, the trade gap reached $16.7 billion and nearly doubles in FY 2024 to $31.8 billion. USDA now forecasts the FY 2025 deficit will rise to approximately $49.5 billion, which would mark the largest agricultural trade imbalance on record.
From changing consumer demand and strength of currency to new market opportunities such as the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, understanding what's driving the deficit is key to supporting U.S. farmers, ensuring a strong agricultural economy and, as discussed in a previous Market Intel - Agricultural Imports 101, protecting U.S. food security.
The United States imports products to ensure year-round access to fresh produce and goods not widely grown domestically. Coffee, for example, is almost entirely imported, since production is limited in Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
To read the entire report click here.
While some seasonal producers face competition from imports, many imported goods do not directly compete with U.S. crops or are made using U.S.-grown ingredients. In other cases, imports complement domestic production. Oranges are a good example. Most oranges consumed in the winter and spring are grown in the United States, but during the off-season, imports help meet consumer demand and keep shelves stocked.
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