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Oct. 20, 2025 by AgWeb editors The government shutdown and resulting absence of data from USDA has left a void in the volatile grain and oilseed markets. To fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on yields and harvest progress as well as other important topics on producers' minds. Based on more than 1,100 qualified responses from across the U.S., the biggest takeaway is that corn yields are estimated to be down compared with USDA's September estimates in six of the seven Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dryness, the 2025 national corn yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bu. As of mid-October, yields are steady or lower for 74% of the respondents across the Crop Tour states, a far cry from higher production estimates for each state in USDA's September Crop Production Report, says Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist. Traders and analysts saw production falling from the September USDA estimate of 186.7 bu. per acre to 185 bu., according to a pre-report poll from Bloomberg in early October. If production does shrink, as the Farm Journal survey indicates, the national average yield could fall to 178.5 bu. per acre. When compared to 2024, the Farm Journal survey shows the biggest yield decline in the "I" states: *Illinois at 7% *Indiana at 4.6% *Iowa at 3.2% On the other hand, Minnesota at 3.8% and South Dakota at 3.3% are seeing yields come in higher than last season. Soybean Harvest Progress Well Ahead of Corn Corn harvest progress is on par with other private estimates at 43% on Oct. 15. Soybean harvest is well ahead at 79% due to dry conditions. "While we aren't getting the weekly crop progress reports, they are still calling and the analyst average this week was 60%," Akre says. Storage Issues Especially Challenging in Northern Plains Just over a third of all respondents in Farm Journal's survey noted storage concerns as many producers are opting to store grain rather than take it to market. Storage issues are more prevalent in the northern Plains, with 56% of producers in South Dakota saying they are facing issues. To read the entire report click here. Tweet |
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