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Dec. 2, 2025
by Michael Langemeier and James Mintert, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture West Lafayette, IN -- The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers' more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128. This month's survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November. The November barometer survey took place from November 10-14, 2025. Producers in November were more optimistic about their farms' financial performance than a month earlier, as the Farm Financial Performance Index climbed 14 points to a reading of 92. In particular, the percentage of producers who expect better financial performance this year rose to 24% from just 16% in October. A sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November was a key reason behind the expectation for better financial performance. For example, Eastern Corn Belt prices for fall delivery of corn and soybeans rose 10% and 15%, respectively, from mid-October to mid-November. The stronger financial outlook in the crop sector outweighed a weaker outlook provided by livestock producers, who were feeling the brunt of a decline in cattle prices that took place during the same time frame. Despite the stronger financial outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to a reading of 56, with just 16% of respondents saying now is a good time to make large investments in their farm operations.
A majority of producers in November reported that they still expect to receive a supplementary support payment from USDA, similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP), but they were less confident of receiving the payment than in September. This month, just 16% of respondents thought an MFP payment was "very likely", down from 62% who felt that way in September. Still, when the "likely" and "very likely" response categories are combined, just over three-fourths (76%) of farmers in November said they expect an MFP payment, compared to 83% who felt that way in September. When asked how an MFP payment would be used on their farms, 58% of respondents said they would use it to "pay down debt", up from 52% who said an MFP payment would be used to reduce debt when surveyed in October. Wrapping Up Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that "things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction", but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose "wrong track" rose from 28% to 33%. To read the entire report click here. Tweet |
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