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Jan. 3, 2011 Source: Agri Marketing magazine On January 6, 2010, Agri Marketing magazine wrote: While the Agri Marketing editors have no inside knowledge of any of the following predictions, we thought it would be fun to speculate on what some of the 2010 headlines may be. Here are things turned out: 1. With a return to more normal weather and climbing exports, corn prices trade in a range of $5 and $3.50 ... soybeans range from $12 to $8. WRONG on corn...CLOSE on beans. Corn's trading range was $6.29 to $3.57 and soybeans $13.93 to $9.36. 2. Lenders begin refusing to make loans to livestock producers who, as an industry, have lost billions of dollars in equity. The result is a 5% reduction in cattle and hog herds. Fed cattle prices will range from $115 to $80 ... hogs will range from $60 to $90 ... milk price will range from $13 to $18. CORRECT in both herd liquidations and price ranges. 3. Consumers in a stabilized world economy will begin to increase/improve their protein intake again, particularly in China and India, boosting exports of U.S. livestock products. CORRECT: With China now purchasing corn and soaring levels of soybeans and meat exports opening up in Russia, USDA reports record exports of ag goods totaling $126.5 billion for the year. 4. Planted corn acres will be even with 2009 at 80 million acres ... soybeans will jump to 80 million ... cotton will show a 20% increase ... all at the expense of wheat acres. 67% CORRECT: the latest USDA planting report showed 79 million acres of soybeans and a 19% increase in cotton acres (both are close enough) and 88 million acres of corn (missed by a mile). 5. Land values rise 5% and cash rents will stabilize at their current values. CORRECT. 6. The jobless rate drops to 8%. WRONG. It actually increased during the year and currently stands at 9.8% 7. The major financial indexes grow 10%. CLOSE. Dow Jones was up 11%, S&P 500 up 13% and Nasdaq up 18% 8. Prime rate rises from its present 3.25% to 5%. WRONG. Prime rate is the same level it was at the beginning of the year at 3.25%...same as 2009. 9. In the U.S., sales of 2WD tractors are even with 2009's volume. 4WD and combines are up 10%. WRONG. Through November, the Association of Equipment Manufactures reports 2WD tractors are up 4%, WD up 27% and combines are up 7%. 10. Net farm income is even with 2009's $57 billion. WRONG. USDA is now forecasting record net farm income of $81.6 billion which is 31% more than last year and 26% higher than its 10-year average. 11. Although most of the focus has been on a drought tolerant gene, a group of scientists announce a breakthrough in finding a moisture tolerant trait. After all, if rice can be flooded, why can't corn or soybeans? WRONG. Not yet. 12. Monsanto and DuPont settle their lawsuits before they get to court. WRONG. It is still pending. 13. The Republican Party wins back a majority in both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections. 50% CORRECT. Republicans took the House, but the Democrats retain a four seat majority in the Senate. 14. The only "block buster" deal in the ag industry in 2010 is Agrium's acquisition of CF Industries. WRONG. Agrium did not wind up acquiring CF Industries. In fact, CF acquired Terra Industries. Other major acquisitions included Pfizer's attempt to acquire King Pharmaceuticals, Novozyme acquiring EMD/Merck Crop BioScience, ACE acquiring Rain & Hail Insurance Service and Pioneer acquiring five regional seed companies. For a complete list of acquisitions, click here Tweet |
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