|
 |
|
|
|||
|
 |
|
Sep. 9, 2014 Source: Agri Marketing magazine The Agri-Marketers' Confidence Index (AMCI) took a marked decline since it was last measured in the spring of 2014. The poll, conducted among corporate agribusiness managers in late August, shows they believe both the current situation has declined for their companies and for farmers and ranchers. Future expectations are the most negative, with 20% reporting they believe business conditions for their companies will be worse 12 months from now and 26% believing the same for farmers and ranchers. On a scale of 0 (lowest) to 100 (highest), the overall AMCI scored a 52 - down from 64 when the poll was conducted in April. "Sentiment among agri-marketers has turned decidedly negative since last April," says Steve Custer, Executive VP/Chief Operating Officer at Farm Journal Media and Chairman of the American Business Media Agri-Media Council. "Corn broke below the $4 price point this summer and I believe that has set assessments and expectations." To view the report click here. "We now have nearly five years of AMCI data and it's interesting to look back to the last time corn was trading around $4 - in the summer of 2010," Custer reports. "The Index didn't show any of the negativity we see now. The difference is prices were on the way up with expectations for future increases high." The AMCI for the current general outlook for U.S. farmers and ranchers has not decidedly changed - from a 74 in April to a 70 now, but agri-marketers turned negative for the outlook for farmers/ranchers' 12 months from now - declining from 53 to 33. This indicates this index has moved from slightly positive (50 is neutral) to negative. "Obviously, commodity prices set the tone for agri-marketers' outlook on the market." Custer explains. "If prices would turn positive, sentiment would clearly increase. I also believe you have to settle into an era of lower prices before you see the full effect - and determine how bad - or not so bad it is. Custer continues, "The one huge positive is the financial condition most producers are in today. Most will be able to weather the storm for quite some time." "It is also interesting to note that 44% of the respondents reported their organizations are planning to decrease their marketing communications budgets, 17% plan to increase them with the balance leaving them at the same level," says Lynn Henderson, Publisher of Agri Marketing magazine. The poll was conducted by Agri Marketing magazine and the American Business Media's (ABM) Agri-Media Council and was sent to 224 managers of companies that develop and sell products to North American crop and livestock producers. A total of 77 (34%) company representatives participated in the poll, including a very wide sampling of large and small enterprises, as well as both crop and livestock-oriented companies. "The AMCI is modeled closely along the lines of the well-known consumer confidence studies regularly reported by The Conference Board," reports Custer. "It is an indicator designed to measure the confidence or the degree of optimism among agribusiness marketers on the state of the agribusiness economy. It looks at both their outlook for their own business now and in the future, as well as their perception of the outlook for their customers - the nation's farmers and ranchers." AMCI is calculated by looking at the percentage of positive versus negative responses. To read how AMCI is calculated and its complete results, click here. A few other highlights include: *43% think the current business conditions for their companies are positive, while 13% believe it is negative. *23% think the agricultural market will be better in 12 months, while 20% think it will be worse. The large majority -- 57%-- expect conditions to be the same. *13% think the general outlook for farmers and ranchers will be better 12 months from now, while 26% think it will be worse - a dramatic shift from last fall when 31% saw the future for farmers/ranchers improving. Related Files: Confidence Index Results Tweet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
