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 Feb. 11, 2008 BrownfieldAgNews reports: The United States Department of Agriculture's updated supply and demand estimates, out Friday, February 8, largely confirmed a lot of recent discussion about shrinking grain and oilseed supplies. According to the USDA, U.S. 2007/08 wheat ending stocks as of as of January 31 were the lowest since 1947/48 at 272 million bushels. Prior to the report, estimates ranged from 237 million to 292 million bushels, with an average guess of 274 million bushels. In January, the USDA showed stocks at 292 million bushels and at this point in 2006/07 wheat stocks were 456 million bushels. USDA left the total supply figure unchanged from January at 2.613 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was lowered 5 million bushels to 110 million, which brought the domestic use estimate down to 1.141 billion bushels. The export estimate was raised 25 million to 1.2 billion bushels. The 5 million bushel decrease in feed and residual use, combined with the 25 million bushel increase in exports takes the total use figure to 2.341 billion bushels. Free stocks were lowered 20 million to 237 million bushels. The 2007/08 average farm price was left unchanged at $6.45 to $6.85. The 2006/07 average was $4.26. By class: hard winter stocks at 121 million bushels, unchanged; hard spring stocks at 73 million bushels, down 15 million from January; soft red winter stocks at 32 million bushels, 5 million less than January; white stocks at 27 million bushels, unchanged and durum stocks were unchanged at 19 million bushels. U.S. corn ending stocks were unchanged from January at 1.438 billion bushels. Ahead of the report, the average guess was for stocks to be at 1.411 billion bushels, in a range of 1.338 billion to 1.463 billion. A year ago at this time, 2006/07 U.S. corn ending stocks were 1.304 billion bushels. Simply put, the USDA did not adjust any of the supply and demand categories from January to February, when many market watchers had been anticipating a higher export estimate offsetting a lower feed use figure. The average 2007/08 farm price was tightened by $.05 on both ends, now at $3.75 to $4.25 per bushel. The average for 2006/07 was $3.04. 2007/08 U.S. soybean ending stocks came out at 160 million bushels, the lowest February figure since 2003/04. That's compared to the January estimate of 175 million and the record year ago level of 574 million. Analysts were expecting stocks to be between 150 million and 175 million bushels, with an average of 167 million. The total supply figure was held steady at 3.165 billion bushels. The crush estimate was raised 5 million bushels to 1.835 billion bushels and the export figure was increased 10 million bushels to 1.005 billion bushels. Those adjustments take total use from 2.990 billion bushels to 3.005 billion bushels, accounting for the decrease in ending stocks. The average farm price for 2007/08 is now seen at $10 to $10.80, compared to the January estimate of $9.90 to $10.90 and the 2006/07 average of $6.43. 2007/08 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks were placed at 2.502 billion pounds, compared to 2.252 billion in January and 3.073 billion this time last year. With the anticipated increase in crush listed in the soybean breakdown, production is now seen at 21.010 billion pounds and total supply is pegged at 23.952 billion pounds. Domestic use was lowered 400 million pounds to 19.500 billion, as the USDA lowered the biodiesel use projection to 3.4 billion. The export estimate was increased 300 million pounds to 1.950 billion. Overall, the total use estimate was dropped 100 million pounds to 21.450 billion. The average 2007/08 price is seen at 47.50 to 51.50 cents per pound, compared to the January figure of 45.50 to 49.50 and the 2006/07 estimate of 31.02. 2007/08 U.S. soybean meal stocks were reported at 300,000 tons, unchanged from January. The 2006/07 figure at this time a year ago was 351,000 tons. Bean meal production is placed at 43,784,000 tons, 300,000 more than in January. That adjustment raises total supply to 44,300,000 tons. Domestic use was held steady at 35,300,000 tons. The export estimate was reported at 8,700,000 tons, compared to 8,400,000 tons last month. That takes total use to 44,000,000 tons, 300,000 above January's estimate. The USDA left the 2007/08 average farm price unchanged at an estimated $305 to $335 per ton. The 2006/07 average farm price was $205.44 per ton. Tweet |
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