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FAPRI ISSUES FIVE YEAR CORN PRICE OUTLOOK
Blog by Keith Good, University of Illinois

To read the complete report, click here.

Earlier this month, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri released its latest baseline update for U.S. agricultural markets.

In part, the baseline update stated that, "Strong demand from China, smaller supplies and other factors have resulted in higher prices for many agricultural commodities. Projected prices for corn, soybeans, hogs and several other commodities moderate in the years ahead, while cattle prices increase.

"This report, based on information available in mid-August 2021, updates the 2021 FAPRI baseline outlook prepared earlier this year. Crop production in 2021 is assumed to equal the values reported by USDA in its August Crop Production report, and macroeconomic assumptions are based on July 2021 forecasts by IHS Markit. Current government policies are assumed to continue. COVID-19 has had major market impacts, but no new large-scale disruptions due to the pandemic are assumed."

With respect to corn, FAPRI indicated that, "A large increase in imports by China, reduced production in Brazil and other factors increase the projected marketing-year-average (MYA) corn price to $5.34 per bushel for the crop harvested this fall.

"Corn prices could fall in subsequent years as Brazilian production rebounds, China's imports stabilize and domestic corn use grows at only a modest pace. Still, projected corn prices remain above $4.00 per bushel over the next five years."


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