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Blog by Keith Good, University of Illinois

In its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report this week, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) indicated that, "China pork production is expected to contract in 2022 as the hog sector adjusts to rapidly changing market conditions. Hog prices have fallen dramatically since the beginning of 2021 and have remained persistently low despite recent national holidays that usually mark an uptick in pork consumption.

Market participants that could have easily made money for much of 2020 at exceptionally high prices may find it more difficult going forward, especially as input prices remain high. These dynamics will likely cause pork production to decline and imports to rise in 2022, particularly in the second half of the year.

"However, they will remain below the 2020 record when disease-induced pork supply shortfalls were most acute."

The FAS update also noted that, "Meanwhile, China beef imports and its share of global trade are expected to grow for the eighth consecutive year in 2022. Beef gained ground as China struggled with tight pork supplies over the past several years. Evolving consumer preferences and an improving foodservice environment will give beef a larger place in the Chinese diet than in the past while muted growth in domestic production will support imports."

To view the complete report, click here.

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