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PURDUE/CME GROUP POLL: FARMER SENTIMENT WEAKENS AS PRODUCTION COST CONCERNS MOUNT
Blog by James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Ag Economy Barometer slipped to a reading of 116 in November, down 5 points from October and 30% lower than in November 2020 when the barometer stood at 167. Once again, weakness in the barometer was tied to weaker sentiment regarding current conditions as well as weaker expectations for the future. The Index of Current Conditions declined 7 points in November to 128 and the Index of Future Expectations fell 4 points to 110.

Figure 1. Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, October 2015-November 2021.


November marked the lowest reading of the year for all three measures of producer sentiment as concerns about sharp rises in production costs coincided with concerns about a host of other issues ranging from prices for crops and livestock to environmental and tax policy as well as COVID. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers' responses to a telephone survey. This month's survey was conducted from November 15 to 19, 2021.

Figure 2. Indices of Current Conditions and Future Expectations, October 2015-November 2021.


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