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PURDUE/CME 'S AG ECONOMY BAROMETER DECLINES, PRODUCERS CONCERNED ABOUT RISING COSTS AND SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS
Feb. 2, 2022
Blog by James Mintert and Michael Langemeier, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Farmer sentiment weakened in January as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 6 points to 119, down from 125 a month earlier. This month's decline leaves the barometer just three points higher than in November and is the second-lowest sentiment reading since July 2020. This month's sentiment decline was driven primarily by weaker perceptions regarding the current situation as the Index of Current Conditions fell 13 points from a month earlier to 133.
Concerns about rising input costs and ongoing supply chain disruptions contributed to weakness in the current conditions index. The Index of Future Expectations changed little this month, falling just two points from a month earlier to 112. However, future expectations index values have been weak dating back to September as the index ranged from a low of 110 to a high of 116 from September 2021 through January 2022.
This contrasts with future expectations readings from January through August 2021 that averaged 147. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sentiment index is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers' responses to a telephone survey. This month's survey was conducted from January 17-21, 2022.
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