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OKLAHOMA STATE LIVESTOCK SPECIALIST SAYS SIGNIFICANT HERD LIQUIDATION INEVITABLE THIS YEAR
Source: Oklahoma Farm Report radio network

Mondays, Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Mark Johnson.

Today, Dr. Peel talks about how the drought is impacting cattle markets.

"The latest Cattle on Feed report showed a record April feedlot inventory of 12.1 million head, up 1.7 percent year over year. The quarterly inventory of steers on feed was up 1.8 percent year over year while the inventory of heifers on feed was up 1.7 percent over one year ago. The total inventory included 62.3 percent steers and 37.7 percent heifers.

"The current level of heifers on feed does not suggest heifer retention for herd expansion. For example, from 2014-2016 in the last herd expansion, the average level of heifers on feed was 33.6 percent.

"Beef cow slaughter for the year to date is up 17.5 percent year over year. This combined with the large number of heifers in feedlots and the fact that heifer slaughter is up 2.0 percent year over year thus far in 2022 suggests that female numbers are being pulled down even before the worst drought impacts are felt.

"Perhaps the ongoing drought, carried over from 2021 for many producers, combined with strong feeder cattle and cull cow prices is prompting early adjustments in herds.

"At the current pace of cow slaughter, the beef cow herd could decrease up to four percent year over year in 2022. This would be the largest yearly decrease in the beef cow inventory since the 1980s.

"The pace of cow slaughter may slow in the second half of the year but is expected to remain strong in the second quarter and significant herd liquidation seems inevitable this year.


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