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Best of NAMA 2022

By Russ Quinn, DTN/Progressive Farmer

Fertilizer and fuel prices appear to be set to stay fairly high for the near future, according to a Kansas State University Extension agricultural economist. (DTN photo by Matthew Wilde)
OMAHA (DTN) -- The price outlook for both fertilizer and fuel is not very optimistic, according to a Kansas State University (KSU) agricultural economist Gregg Ibendahl.

In a webinar last week, Ibendahl said both inputs have major issues to overcome before either market will see less expensive prices.

Fertilizers show the potential for even higher prices based on several different factors despite recent records at the retail level. Fuel, meanwhile, has major supply issues with fewer U.S. refineries in business with no new facilities planned.


Ibendahl uses a modeling system to predict where retail fertilizer prices could go, using the price of corn, price of oil and inflation to come up with an anhydrous price.

Based on oil at $125/gallon, a $7.00/bushel corn price and 8% inflation, the model's average price for anhydrous in 2022 should be in the $1,700/ton range, he said.

Anhydrous climbing to $2,000/ton is not out of the question. Ibendahl said it would not be surprising "at all" if prices climbed to new all-time highs.

"Farmers should be prepared and be planning for this," he said.

The model also predicted potash prices could rise to $1,200/ton, while MAP prices could be in the $1,470/ton range, he said.

For some perspective, the highest average retail fertilizer price tracked by DTN for anhydrous this spring was $1,534/ton. For potash prices, the high point was set at $881/ton, while MAP peaked at $1,083/ton.

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