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MORE ANALYSIS OF USDA'S RECENT CROP REPORT
Jan. 16, 2024
by Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc program
Corn growers in the United States achieved a new record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre in 2023, the United States Department of Agriculture estimated this past Friday. The projection was released as part of a plethora of reports covering crop production in 2023, winter wheat seedings and grain stocks, among others.
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| Ryan Hanrahan |
Courtesy of the United States Department of Agriculture
The 2023 corn yield estimate was a record, but "interestingly, it's slightly below trend," said Chris Hawthorn, Acting Chief of the USDA National Agricultural Statistic Service's Crops Branch. The USDA estimated record high corn yields in Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, South Carolina and Utah, he said. No states had record lows.
"Yields bounced back from the drought in 2022 in Oklahoma and Texas and also Tennessee," Hawthorn said.
The record corn yield also pushed the 2023 corn production estimate to a record -- 15.3 billion bushels -- according to the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, an increase of 12.4% from the previous season.
While the corn yield estimate was higher than many analysts had expected, according to the USDA NASS, farmdoc's Scott Irwin wrote on X, the website formerly known as Twitter, that the "increase in corn yield estimates makes more sense when you consider decreases in harvested acreage. Similar production with lower harvested acreage means higher yield."
The harvested acreage for U.S. corn in 2023 was estimated at 86.5 million acres -- a decrease of 0.6 million acres from the previous year. U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 2.162 billion bushels, which was on the high end of analyst expectations, according to the Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing.
Soybeans
For soybeans, the USDA upped its yield estimate by 0.7 bushels to 50.6 bushels per acre, which is "the fourth highest yield on record," according to Hawthorn.
"A bump in top producer Illinois anchored the yield increase from November," Reuters' Karen Braun wrote on X.
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