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Aug. 8, 2024 Source: Nutrien news release Agriculture and Retail Markets *Favorable growing conditions have created an expectation for record US corn and soybean yields and pressured crop prices. Despite lower crop prices, demand for crop inputs in North America is expected to remain strong in the third quarter of 2024 as growers aim to maintain optimal plant health and yield potential. We anticipate that good affordability for potash and nitrogen will support fall application rates in 2024. *Brazilian crop prices and prospective grower margins have improved from levels earlier this year supported by a weaker currency. Brazilian soybean area is expected to increase by one to three percent in the upcoming planting season and fertilizer demand is projected to be approximately 46 million tonnes in 2024, in line with historical record levels. *Australian moisture conditions vary regionally but remain supportive of crop input demand as trend yields are expected. Crop Nutrient Markets *Global potash demand in the first half of 2024 was supported by favorable consumption trends in most markets and low channel inventories in North America and Southeast Asia. The settlement of contracts with China and India in July is expected to support demand in standard grade markets in the second half of 2024, while uptake on our summer fill program in North America has been strong. As a result, we have raised our 2024 full-year global potash shipment forecast to 69 to 72 million tonnes and expect a relatively balanced market in the second half of 2024. *Global nitrogen markets are being supported by steady demand and continued supply challenges in key producing regions. Chinese urea export restrictions have been extended into the second half of 2024 and natural gas-related supply reductions could continue to impact nitrogen operating rates in Egypt and Trinidad. US nitrogen inventories were estimated to be below average levels entering the second half of 2024, contributing to strong engagement on our summer fill programs. *Phosphate fertilizer prices are being supported by tight global supply due to Chinese export restrictions, low channel inventories in North America and seasonal demand in Brazil and India. We anticipate some impact on demand for phosphate fertilizer in the second half of 2024 as affordability levels have declined compared to potash and nitrogen. Financial and Operational Guidance *Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered to $1.5 to $1.7 billion due primarily to ongoing market instability in Brazil as well as the impact of delayed planting in North America in the second quarter. *Potash sales volume guidance was increased to 13.2 to 13.8 million tonnes due to expectations for higher global demand in 2024. The range reflects the potential for a relatively short duration Canadian rail strike in the second half. *Nitrogen sales volume guidance was narrowed to 10.7 to 11.1 million tonnes as we continue to expect higher operating rates at our North American and Trinidad plants and growth in sales of upgraded products such as urea and nitrogen solutions. *Phosphate sales volume guidance was lowered to 2.5 to 2.6 million tonnes reflecting extended turnaround activity and delayed mine equipment moves. *Finance costs guidance was lowered to $0.7 to $0.8 million due to a lower expected average short-term debt balance. To read the entire report click here. Tweet |
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