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Best of NAMA 2024












9 MONTHS: NUTRIEN'S SALES DOWN 11%, EARNINGS DOWN 47%: $582 MILLION
Source: Nutrien news release

SASKATOON, Saskatchewan -- Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its third quarter 2024 results, with net earnings of $25 million ($0.04 diluted net earnings per share). Third quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA 1 was $1.0 billion and adjusted net earnings per share 1 was $0.39.

"Nutrien delivered higher Potash sales volumes and lower operating costs through the first nine months of 2024, utilizing the strengths of our six-mine network and global distribution capabilities to respond to increased customer demand. We are seeing strong crop nutrient demand in North America for the fall application season following a period of lower field activity in the third quarter," commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO.

"We remain focused on strategic priorities that strengthen the advantages of our business across the ag value chain. This includes accelerating the timeline for achieving our annual consolidated cost savings target, further optimizing capital expenditures, delivering upstream fertilizer sales volume growth and advancing high-return downstream Retail growth opportunities. These initiatives provide a pathway for delivering structural improvements to our earnings and free cash flow through the cycle," added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights

*Generated net earnings of $582 million and adjusted EBITDA of $4.3 billion in the first nine months of 2024.
Retail adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.4 billion in the first nine months of 2024 supported by higher product margins in North America. Lowered full-year 2024 Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.5 to $1.6 billion as favorable growing conditions in North America resulted in reduced pest pressure and lower field activity in the third quarter.

*Potash adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.6 billion in the first nine months of 2024 due to lower net selling prices, partially offset by record sales volumes of 11.1 million tonnes. Raised full-year 2024 Potash sales volumes guidance to 13.5 to 13.9 million tonnes due to the continued strength of global demand.

*Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA decreased to $1.4 billion in the first nine months of 2024 as lower net selling prices more than offset lower natural gas costs and higher sales volumes. Total ammonia production increased in the first nine months of 2024, driven by improved natural gas utilization and reliability at our operations in Trinidad.

*Accelerated operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives and expect to achieve approximately $200 million of annual consolidated savings by 2025, ahead of our initial target of 2026.

*Maintained total capital expenditures guidance of $2.2 to $2.3 billion for 2024 and expect capital expenditures in a range of $2.0 to $2.1 billion in 2025 to sustain our assets and deliver on our growth initiatives.

*Repurchased 1.5 million shares for a total of approximately $75 million in the second half of 2024 as of November 5, 2024.

*This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" section.

Our discussion of highlights set out on this page is a comparison of the results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024 to the results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail Markets


Favorable growing conditions in the US have supported expectations for record US corn and soybean yields and significant soil nutrient removal in 2024. Prospective crop margins have declined compared to the historically high levels in recent years, however we believe most growers in the US Midwest remain in a healthy financial position. Global grain stocks remain below historical average levels, supporting export demand for North American crops and firm prices for key agriculture commodities such as rice, sugar and palm oil.

Fertilizer demand in North America for the fall application season has been supported by a relatively early harvest and the need to replenish soil nutrients, following a period of lower field activity in the third quarter.
Soybean planting in Brazil was delayed by dryness; however, the pace of planting picked up in the second half of October and soybean crop area is expected to increase by one to three percent. Brazilian fertilizer demand is projected to be approximately 46 million tonnes in 2024, in line with historical record levels.
Australian growing conditions for winter crops have been favorable with timely rains received in key areas, supporting crop production prospects and expected grower returns.

Crop Nutrient Markets

We raised our 2024 global potash shipment forecast to 70 to 72 million tonnes primarily driven by stronger expected demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia. We believe the increase in global shipments in 2024 has been driven by an underlying increase in consumption in key markets.

We forecast global potash shipments between 71 and 74 million tonnes in 2025 supported by the need to replenish soil nutrient levels and the relative affordability of potash. We anticipate limited new capacity in 2025 and the potential for incremental supply tightness with demand growth.

Global ammonia prices have been supported by supply outages, project delays and higher European natural gas values. Chinese urea export restrictions, production challenges from major exporters and strong demand from India and Brazil have tightened the global urea market. US nitrogen inventory was estimated to be well below average levels at the end of the third quarter, which we expect will support demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025.

Global phosphate markets remain tight supported by Chinese export restrictions and production outages in the US. We anticipate some impact on global demand due to tight supply and weaker affordability relative to potash and nitrogen.

To read the entire report click here.


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