 |
| CLICK HERE TO VIEW CURRENT ISSUE |
|
 |
|
PURDUE ECONOMIST FORECASTS SWINE FEED COSTS IN 2025
Dec. 9, 2024
By Michael Langemeier, Center for Commercial Agriculture, Purdue University
Indiana corn prices during the first half of this year averaged $4.54 per bushel. Since June, prices have dropped sharply. The most recent WASDE report indicates that corn prices could remain low for the foreseeable future. Using the farmdoc Price Distribution tool in early December, corn prices for the July 2025 futures contract at the 25th percentile, the 50th percentile, and the 75th percentile were $3.94, $4.35, and $4.80, respectively. The $3.94 price ($4.80 price) indicates that there is a 25 percent chance that the corn price will be below $3.94 (above $4.80) per bushel at the expiration of the July contract. Obviously, low expected corn prices will translate into relatively low feed costs during the first part of next year. This article examines trends in feed costs as well as the impact of corn and soybean meal prices on feed costs for farrow-to-finish and swine finishing operations.
It is important to note that the swine finishing enterprise represented in this article assumes the finishing of an early-weaned pig. The rations for the farrow-to-finish and swine finishing enterprises consist of corn, soybean meal, dry distillers' grain, and supplements. Corn prices represent averages for Indiana as reported by USDA-NASS. Soybean meal and distillers' grain prices are obtained from Feed Outlook, published monthly by USDA-ERS. Information from Agricultural Prices, a monthly USDA-NASS publication, was used to compute supplement prices. Early December futures prices for corn and soybean meal were used to project feed indices for 2025. Feed cost indices are reported on a closeout month rather than a placement month basis.
Corn and Soybean Meal Prices
Figures 1 and 2 report monthly corn and soybean meal prices from January 2007 to October 2024. Corn price averaged $4.73 per bushel from 2007 to the current month. Soybean meal price averaged $364 per ton from 2007 to the current month. Current corn and soybean meal prices are below the long-run averages. Futures prices suggest that corn and soybean meal prices are likely to remain below their long-run averages well into next year. The impact of these corn and soybean meal projections on feed costs are discussed below.
To read entire report, Click Here.
|
|
|
|
|
