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Jul. 1, 2025
By Casey Seymour, General Manager, Machinery Pete Summary: After nearly three years of market turbulence, agriculture producers are signaling a shift. The sentiment of farmers and agricultural machinery buyers is becoming increasingly optimistic, and their plans to invest in farm machinery and equipment are on the rise again. From auction activity and equipment pricing to survey data and dealer insights, signs point to a meaningful rebound in farmer confidence and purchasing behavior heading into 2026. Confidence Is Building -- And It's Showing in the Data Across the agricultural landscape, farmers are becoming more bullish about their future. According to Purdue University's most recent Ag Economy Barometer, nearly 1 in 5 producers expect their operations to grow by 10% to 15% annually -- more than double last year's expectations. This sharp increase in growth outlook reflects not only more favorable economic conditions but also a willingness to reinvest in operations. That intent is translating into near-term buying plans. Farm Journal's latest Seed & Planting Study reveals that over half of farmers expect to purchase new machinery or equipment within the next 6 to 12 months. For an industry coming off a two-year pullback, that's a significant turning point. Rebounding from a Market Reset: Where We've Been To understand this momentum, it's important to consider the recent challenges. The ag equipment sector faced a massive glut in used inventory in 2023 and early 2024. Supply chain delays during the COVID-19 pandemic had held back new equipment, and when OEMs finally delivered, a wave of trade-ins overwhelmed dealer lots. Add in higher interest rates, lower commodity prices, and cautious buyer sentiment, and the result was stalled transactions and falling values. Used equipment prices dropped sharply, with some platforms seeing 20-30% year-over-year depreciation. Dealers turned to auctions to clear space, setting volume records but sacrificing margin. By the end of 2024, the market had hit bottom. 2025: Stabilization and Renewed Activity Now, that dynamic is shifting. Auction prices began stabilizing in early 2025 and have held firm through midyear-- a leading indicator that demand is strengthening. Historically, when auctions stabilize, retail pricing and volume follow within 90-120 days. Used equipment values are already trending up modestly, rising 2% to 4% year-over-year across several categories. While sales velocity remains below pre-pandemic levels, buyer engagement is growing. More producers are returning to the market with an investment mindset, and dealer sentiment is gradually improving. Auctions in June set a strong tone for the rest of the year, with expectations for a solid finish during the peak sales months of September to December. Looking Ahead: A Smarter, More Selective Cycle The rebound underway is not a rapid snapback--it's a measured recovery. Farmers are making more calculated purchasing decisions. Dealers, still managing aging inventory and higher financing costs, are focused on strategic pricing and smarter trades. This emerging cycle is likely to carry into 2026 with continued stabilization in used values, increased buying activity, and greater confidence in capital investment. With machinery demand picking up and growth expectations on the rise, the ag equipment market is entering a healthier, more sustainable phase. The Bottom Line for Dealers, Auction Companies, and Manufacturers After a challenging stretch, farmers are gearing up for growth again. Their investment intentions, buoyed by improving auction trends, economic sentiment, and industry studies, make one thing clear: machinery and equipment are moving to the top of the priority list. For manufacturers, dealers, and ag service providers, the path forward is all about staying agile, data-driven, and ready to serve the next wave of demand. To discuss this data, the current state of the market, and to brainstorm on practical strategies and tactics, schedule time with your Farm Journal Machinery Pete representative. As always, we are here to help! Tweet |
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