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FARMER SENTIMENT DRIFTS LOWER AS TRADE UNCERTAINTY HANGS OVER AGRICULTURE
Jan. 7, 2026
by Michael Langemeier and James Mintert, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
Source: West Lafayette, IN -- Farmer sentiment weakened slightly in December as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index dropped just 3 points in December to a reading of 136. Weakness in the barometer was attributable to a modest decline in producers' long-term outlook, as the Future Expectations Index fell to 140, 4 points below a month earlier.
Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index, at 128, was unchanged from November's reading. Angst about prospects for U.S. soybean exports amid increasing competition from Brazil contributed to a slightly weaker outlook for the future among crop producers.
The December barometer survey took place from December 1-5, 2025.
Confidence in the use of tariffs to strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy is showing signs of waning. In December, 54% of respondents said they expect the use of tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy, down from 58% and 59% in October and November, respectively. Farmers who are uncertain about tariffs' long-run impact rose to 19% of respondents in December, up from 17% a month earlier.
The percentage of producers who say they are uncertain about how tariff policy will affect the agricultural economy in the long run has more than doubled since this question was first posed in the spring. However, when asked if the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track," three-fourths (75%) of respondents chose "right direction" in December, which was the highest percentage recorded since this question was first included in barometer surveys starting in July.
Wrapping Up
Farmer sentiment drifted lower in December as producers became slightly less optimistic about the future than in November. The small decline in overall farmer sentiment occurred despite the fact that producers held a more optimistic view of their farms' financial performance and were slightly more optimistic about farmland values than a month earlier.
Uncertainty about the future of agricultural trade continues to influence farmer sentiment. Nearly one in five (19%) respondents said they are uncertain about how U.S. tariff policy will affect the agricultural economy in the long run. In addition to rising concerns about tariff policy impacts on agriculture, almost 9 out of 10 (86%) corn and soybean growers said they were concerned about increasing competition from Brazil affecting U.S. soybean exports, which might also underlie weakness in expectations for the future.
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