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Mar. 26, 2026 Source: Farm Futures magazine St. Charles, IL -- A Farm Progress survey led by its agricultural business magazine, Farm Futures, indicates a few more corn acres than the USDA Outlook projected in February, but still fewer than in 2025. Based on cumulative numbers from all states in the Farm Futures survey, corn planting intentions in 2026 are expected to drop about 2.4% from 2025, or about half the drop that USDA projected in February. "U.S. farmers are widely expected to slash corn plantings in 2026 as heavy supplies from last year's record 17-billion-bushel harvest weigh on grain prices and pressure margins," Bruce Blythe, Farm Futures senior editor said. "However, the Farm Futures national survey numbers suggest any decline may not be as drastic as some might think." A 2.4% drop in acreage from 2025, as shown in the Farm Futures survey, would result in plantings shrinking about 2.36 million acres, to roughly 96.4 million acres. USDA last month projected 98 million acres planted to corn. Soybean acres, according to the Farm Futures survey, could be up a million acres from USDA's estimate. The Farm Futures survey suggests a sizable expansion of soybean acres after last year's plantings shrank to a six-year low. • A 6% increase from 2025, adding nearly 4.9 million acres, would result in soybean plantings above 86 million acres. • In February, USDA forecasted a 4.7% boost in soybean acreage, to 85 million acres. The boost noted in the Farm Futures survey in part comes from the fringe of the core grain-producing states. "Soybean acres appear poised to jump in part as farmers in the Southeast shift away from unprofitable cotton and rice," Blythe said. "Optimism around biofuels demand, which helped drive a winter rally in futures above $12 per bushel, is surely making soybeans enticing for many farmers. Additionally, hopes for further purchases from China continue to linger." With a focus on the business of farming and marketing grain crops, Farm Futures serves large-scale farm operators across the country with business-oriented content. One of the services that Farm Futures provides to its market-oriented farmer audience is regular surveys to help them adjust production direction to maximize profit. Included in those surveys are topical management and economic questions. The spring survey is designed to indicate planting intentions to help farmers make marketing decisions ahead of USDA's Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks reports, which will be released next Tuesday, March 31. USDA's March report is the first government report of the season to rely on farmer surveys. The caveat on any planting intentions survey is agronomics largely dictate cropping decisions, noted Pam Caraway, Farm Futures executive editor. Though farmers flirt with the idea of disrupting their rotation, Caraway said more than half indicated in this survey they give great weight to the benefits of alternating which crop is planted in each field. Overall, Farm Futures Senior Editor Ben Potter said, "Farmers aren't necessarily looking to make big changes to capitalize on commodity price trends. Only 15% of respondents say their acreage intentions have changed over the past two months for this reason." Further, an additional pressure weighing on planting decisions is production cost. The impact of the war in Iran and continuous tariff turmoil create volatility not only in the grain markets but also at the ag retail store. The impact on input costs -- chemicals, fuel and fertilizer -- further curbs a farmer's opportunity to make a profit. "Farmers are using crop budget sheets to benchmark their individual production costs, then turning to the market to determine which crop offers any kind of margin for profit," Caraway said. "Some years you sharpen the pencil. Some years you work it down to a nub. This is one of those years when farmers figure and re-figure up to the day planters roll into the fields." Tweet |
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