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FARMER SENTIMENT DECLINES AMID INPUT COSTS, AVAILABILITY CONCERNS
May 6, 2026
By Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
West Lafayette, IN -- Farmer sentiment dropped in April as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index declined from 127 in March to 121 (see Figure 1). The Current Conditions Index fell by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index decreased by 4 points (see Figure 2). This month's Future Expectations Index was 16 points below last year's December index and 28 points below last year's April index.
The percentage of respondents who listed high input costs as their biggest concern remained at 46% this month, while the percentage who listed input availability as their biggest concern increased from 11% to 14%. The percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" and who expect land prices to be higher five years from now also decreased.
The April barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the nation from April 13-17, 2026.
This month's survey included questions related to the impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of the respondents expected their net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the Iran conflict, which began in late February and affected fertilizer and natural gas prices worldwide (see Figure 4).
As in the last few months, producers were asked whether the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" or on the "wrong track." The percentage of producers who reported that the U.S. is headed in the "right direction" fell from 65% in March to 57% in April (see Figure 7).
Wrapping Up
Farmer sentiment decreased from 127 in March to 121 in April. The decline in sentiment regarding current conditions was larger than the corresponding decline in sentiment related to future expectations. The percentage of producers who expected good times in the next five years was 37% in April, which is 19% lower than the April 2025 survey report. There continues to be a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 31% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 69% expected good times for livestock producers.
Concerns about input costs remained high, and a higher percentage of respondents indicated that input availability is a major concern, likely driven by the uncertainty the Iran conflict has caused in fertilizer markets. A lower percentage of respondents indicated that U.S. policy is headed in the "right direction", along with a lower percentage expecting land values to increase in the next five years, pointing to less optimism regarding long-run sentiment concerns.
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