 |
| CLICK HERE TO VIEW CURRENT ISSUE |
 |
| Best of NAMA 2026 |
|
 |
|
USMCA IS A BOON TO CORN ECONOMY, STUDY SHOWS
Jun. 2, 2026
Source: National Corn Growers Association news release
Chesterfield, MO - USMCA is an overall net win for the U.S. agricultural industry. One third of total U.S. agriculture exports rely on Mexico and Canada, and economists widely agree that this trade agreement is the single most important trade agreement to the corn industry. While USMCA has been a critical driver of the agriculture industry since enactment in 2020, corn leads the way by many metrics in telling the brightest success story of the trade deal and emphasizing how important the renewal is when all countries must meet to decide its future on July 1, 2026.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement Represents 1.8 Billion Bushels of Corn Demand, Contributing $20 Billion to the U.S. Economy
Together, the United States' USMCA partners are the top export market for all corn products: bulk corn, ethanol, and meat products. USMCA represented not only 37% of total U.S. corn exports in MY 24/25, but also made up 39% of U.S. ethanol exports and 33% of beef, pork, poultry, and product exports. Putting this in terms of corn, in 2025, USMCA exports represented 1.8 billion bushels of corn demand in the form of bulk corn, corn for ethanol, and the corn equivalent of meat. In the context of annual use between 15 and 16.5 billion bushels of total use in recent years USMCA represents a truly critical portion of U.S. corn demand.
The amount of corn reliant on trade provided under USMCA is the same size as the state of Minnesota's total annual corn production. To put the sheer magnitude of that volume into context another way, the United States' annual stocks in the near past have ranged between 1.5 and 2.2 billion bushels. If that pile of corn no longer has a market guarantee provided under USMCA's provisions, the outlook for the U.S. corn industry is in grave danger when also dealing with a heavy stocks-to-use ratio and resulting low prices. But this is not just a balance sheet issue for corn farmers, but a question of economics. Corn production does not just support farmers - it supports the communities around them, including related employment, local, state, and federal tax bases, and the American economy at large.
By parsing out the U.S. corn demand dependent on USMCA and running these values through IMPLAN, a regional economic modeling tool, it is possible to quantify the economic weight behind the impact of this corn production, even before value is added through ethanol or meat product processing. The $7.3 billion in corn-equivalent 1.8 billion bushels generates $19.96 billion in economic output, 71,377 jobs, $4.99 billion in wages, and $1.46 billion in tax revenue. Put another way, every one bushel of corn grown in the United States that depends on USMCA supports $11.09 of associated economic activity.
Not Just Maintaining Current Markets, But Capturing Future Opportunity for U.S. Corn Growers
U.S. corn and product exports to USMCA partners have skyrocketed since the agreement was enacted in 2020. Corn exports under USMCA have grown at an average growth rate of 12.5% by value per year since the agreement was enacted; ethanol by 20.4%; distillers grains by 3.0%; and meat and products by 7.1%. This is not total growth: this is yearly, an impact that has compounded the longer the agreement has been in place and has meaningfully translated into large gains in exports we see today.
The U.S. corn (and ethanol, and DDGS, and meat) export program has been a bright spot in the recent past, expected to reach an incredible 3.3 billion tons in MY 25/26. The ability of export potential to expand to match upward-trending corn yields and planted acres will be critical to returning value to the corn grower and driving prices that allow farmers to be profitable. To continue to be competitive on the global market, the United States will not only have to maintain the market share it already has but also continue to make gains to match growing exportable supplies. The stability and the sheer volume of trade underpinned by USMCA is important now, but will also be of growing importance to U.S. farmers in the future.
The duty-free access codified under USMCA coupled with the United States' geographical advantage gives U.S. corn growers a clear advantage into two major global markets, especially compared to fierce and growing competition from South American exporters. As Canada and Mexico's demand for corn and related products grows annually, the United States is the obvious choice to meet the market in a symbiotic relationship. USMCA ensures that relationship fully supports and benefits the American corn economy.
What it means: The renewal of USMCA on July 1 is by no means certain. NCGA has been vocal on the importance of the USMCA to the success of the American corn farmer, but the benefits from corn alone extend well beyond the farm gate and across the broader U.S. economy. At a time when the average grower is already operating at a loss and uncertain about the future, removing this important assurance of demand, future growth, and stability would only add to the financial pressure. USMCA has been a clear success for the U.S. corn grower, but imminent policy decisions will determine if that legacy continues.
|
|
|
|
|
