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Oct. 12, 2026
by Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc project Urbana, IL - Agri-Pulse's Olivia M. Bridges and Kim Chipman reported that "the harvest for corn, the biggest U.S. cash crop, would be the second largest ever if a forecast calling for 16 billion bushels is realized, the Agriculture Department said in its October crop production report." "Along with a bumper harvest, USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, sees higher corn yield at 181.2 bushels an acre, higher than last month's outlook and the average analyst estimate of 177.7 bushels an acre, said Karen Braun, chief market analyst for Zaner Ag Hedge," Bridges and Chipman reported. "... The outlook for the average U.S. soybean yield also was raised, to 53.1 a bushel, slightly above expectations. Soybean production is seen at 4.56 billion bushels, up 7% from 2025. If realized, both output and yield would be the biggest on record." Braun said on the social media platform X that the corn yield increase from a predicted 178.5 bushels per acre in September to 181.2 bpa this month was the USDA's largest September to October increase since 2005 and that Nebraska's yield alone was raised 11 bushels per acre, which "raised national yield by 1.2 bpa and added 106 mbu of production." FarmFutures Bruce Blythe reported that "corn futures plunged over 20 cents to an eight-week low (on Friday) after USDA unexpectedly hiked its production and yield estimates for the U.S. crop, signaling an ample supply outlook for 2027 while undercutting ideas that adverse summer weather in parts of the Midwest would lead to sharp losses. Soybean futures initially sank after USDA's yield and production numbers exceeded forecasts but rallied to end higher." "Corn and soybeans rallied near three-year highs late last summer amid ideas that extreme heat or extreme rains in different parts of the Midwest would harm crop potential," Blythe reported. "But (Friday's) numbers suggested damage was less severe or less widespread than once thought. The result appears to be another year of historically large harvests that could keep a lid on upside price potential." Corn Stocks See Significant Raises Progressive Farmer Staff reported that, for corn, "beginning stocks for the 2026-27 crop came in at 2.095 bb following the increase in the Quarterly Grain Stocks report for year-end carryover from the 2025-26 crop. That was up from 1.922 bb." "Ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop were raised to 1.849 bb, up from 1.567 bb in September," Progressive Farmer Staff reported. "The farmgate price for the 2026-27 crop is projected at $4.70 a bushel, down 10 cents from September." Other Models Find Smaller Yields Progressive Farmer's Jason Jenkins reported that "while September brought record-setting rainfall to portions of the Corn Belt, other regions received much-needed precipitation that reversed dry conditions and benefited the nation's overall corn and soybean crops. The result is the two crops maintained or slightly improved previous yield trajectories, according to updated data from the 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour." "Based on DTN's proprietary yield models as of Oct. 1, the national average corn yield is projected at 179.5 bushels per acre (bpa), up 1.1 bpa from Sept. 1 model estimates," Jenkins reported. "In soybeans, DTN models estimate the national average yield at 52.2 bpa, down 0.1 bpa from a month earlier. Questions over grain quality issues now linger as the 2026 growing season nears the finish line." Tweet |
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