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Oct. 16, 2026 by Ryan Hanrahan, University of Illinois' FarmDoc project Urbana, IL -- Bloomberg's Hallie Gu reported that "China has purchased more cargoes of US soybeans, extending a buying spree this week that marks its first acquisitions since the leaders of the two countries held a summit in late September." "State-owned companies have booked at least 20 soybean shipments that will be delivered from the US Gulf and Pacific West, according to people familiar with the matter, equivalent to around 1.3 million tons," Gu reported. "Cargoes will be mainly loaded from December to March, they said, asking not to be named as they're not authorized to speak to the media." Reuters' Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral reported that "the purchases helped ease concerns after China had largely stayed out of the market for weeks, partly because of the prolonged National Day holiday, with the return of state buyers seen as a sign of continued demand." "Combined, this week's purchases amount to 18-23 cargoes, or roughly 1.2-1.5 million metric tons of US soybeans, according to Reuters calculations," Cao and Thukral reported. "That brings China a step closer to meeting the 25 million-ton purchase target announced by the White House for the 2026/27 marketing year with purchases so far now totalling around 15 million tons." State-owned buyers have largely been the ones making the purchases, as U.S. soybeans have not been cost competitive for private buyers. And that's unlikely to change anytime soon. S&P Global's Sayona anna John reported that "China has outlined tariff reductions for a range of US agricultural goods, including grains, soybean products, and animal proteins, while excluding commercial soybeans, according to details released by the Ministry of Commerce Sept. 28." "With commercial soybeans excluded from the tariff cuts, US-origin beans will continue to face a 13% import tariff in China, including an additional 10% levy, compared with a 3% MFN tariff on Brazilian soybeans," anna John reported. "The additional tariff has reduced the competitiveness of US soybeans for Chinese private crushers." U.S. Corn Also Not Cost Competitive for Chinese Buyers Reuters' Ella Cao and Liz Lee reported that "China's corn output is expected to rise this year while imports edge lower, with US supplies 'not an option yet' because they remain uneconomical, Zhang Dalong, agricultural products research director at COFCO Futures, said on Tuesday." "Zhang said US corn was not currently commercially viable, even under a 1% in-quota tariff, because import margins remained negative," Cao and Lee reported. "A slide in his presentation showed that, using US Gulf ports as a benchmark, the theoretical import margin for corn delivered between November 2026 and March 2027 ranged from a loss of 15.52 yuan to 59.75 yuan ($2.32 to $8.93) per ton." Tweet |
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