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| Best of NAMA 2026 |
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PURDUE POLL: OPTIMISM GROWS IN OCTOBER AS CURRENT CONDITIONS IMPROVE
Nov. 4, 2026
by Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture
West Lafayette, IN -- Farmer sentiment improved in October, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer (AEB) Index increasing from 123 points in September to 126 points (see Figure 1). The Index of Current Conditions increased by 16 points, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped by 2 points (see Figure 2).
High input costs remain the biggest concern. Despite this concern, the Farm Financial Performance Index increased from 90 to 94, and the Farm Capital Investment Index increased from 39 to 55 in October. The increase in the Index of Current Conditions coincided with the rollout of the USDA Agriculture Risk Coverage-County (ARC-CO) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments in October. Continued concerns about the long-run policy environment, which will be further discussed below, are likely impacting producer expectations.
The October barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from October 12 to 16, 2026.
This month's survey included questions about farm resilience or the ability to withstand market shocks. Approximately 62% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the following statement: "We have a strong balance sheet" (see Figure 4). In January of this year, 76% of respondents indicated that they have a strong balance sheet. In a related question, 60% of respondents this month either agreed or strongly agreed that their farm had a solid working capital position (see Figure 5).
Wrapping Up
Farmer sentiment increased from 123 to 126 in October due to an improvement in sentiment regarding current conditions. The Index of Current Conditions increased by 16 points, while the Index of Future Expectations dropped by 2 points. Respondents were more optimistic about their financial prospects and the investment environment. Despite the improvement in sentiment, the share of producers reporting a strong balance sheet declined from 76% in January to approximately 62% in October, suggesting that financial pressures remain.
Long-run policy concerns are mitigating optimism regarding long-term sentiment. Only 35% of respondents thought the increased use of tariffs by the U.S. would strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. Likewise, less than 50% of respondents indicated that the U.S. is headed in the "right direction." Despite declines in both farmland value expectations indices, respondents remained optimistic about farmland values over the next five years.
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