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NEBRASKA CLIMATOLOGIST: YEAR LONG DROUGHT MAY BE ENDING
Oct. 22, 2012
BrownfieldAgNews reports:
Recent rain events in portions of the central and eastern Corn Belt have raised hopes that the year-long drought pattern in those areas could be coming to an end.
Nebraska state climatologist Al Dutcher says it's definitely a positive sign.
"The likelihood is, as we move into the spring period, most of these (areas) are not going to have much-if at all-any drought signal," Dutcher says, "and I would expect with normal precipitation, we're going to see at least normal to above normal corn and soybean yields coming out of the central and eastern Corn Belt."
But Dutcher predicts drought concerns will linger in the northern and western Corn Belt, even though parts of Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa have received a couple of fairly decent rains this fall.
"If we get two or three more of those, I'll feel a lot more comfortable that we've kind of broken the back of this drought," he says. "But until I see that, my expectations are we will see this drought continue at least into next spring-and then it really boils down to how much soil moisture recharge have we got in the western High Plains."
Statistically speaking, Dutcher says the chance of another severe drought in 2013-similar to this year's drought-is only about five percent. But even with a return to normal precipitation, Dutcher says, it will take time to replenish depleted soil moisture reserves.
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