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Jan. 23, 2015 The Star Democrat (Easton, MD) reports: Some have used the figure "130 percent" to describe where Maryland agriculture stands in meeting its water quality goals, but that's not accurate, according to federal and state data. The Chesapeake Bay Program recently confirmed the official numbers. As of 2013, Maryland agriculture is 95 percent toward meeting its 2017 nitrogen reduction goal and 51 percent toward meeting its 2017 goal for phosphorus reduction. Julie Oberg, spokesman for the Maryland Department of Agriculture, confirmed the same figures - 95 percent for nitrogen and 51 percent for phosphorus - for Maryland agriculture's 2017 goals. She said the 130 percent figure that has been cited for various sources in recent months was rounded up from 126 percent, which is where Maryland agriculture stood in meeting its 2013 best management practices goals. Jason Keppler, the program manager for MDA's Watershed Implementation Program, said the Environmental Protection Agency gave states two-year milestones, starting in 2009 and continuing through 2025. The midpoint between that time span is 2017, which is when the Environmental Protection Agency says states need to show a 60 percent reduction in both nitrogen and phosphorus. Maryland agriculture was ahead of schedule to meet its 2013 goal for best management practices, or BMPs, which are conservation measures implemented to reduce nutrient loads into the Bay. Maryland agriculture was not, however, ahead of schedule to meet its 2017 nutrient reduction goals, according to the Bay program and the state agriculture department. Keppler said, however, that Maryland as a whole is on track to meet the 2017 goals. "As far as the agriculture sector, specifically, we are on our way to meeting nitrogen and halfway there for phosphorus," Keppler said. To meet the 2017 goals, Keppler said MDA and farms continue to adopt additional BMPs, including "bread and butter" structural practices like grass and forest buffers, and seek opportunities to install new practices that enhance existing ones. Keppler said the U.S. Geological Survey has done studies on the Eastern Shore that shows it could take up to 30 years to see the benefit from when a BMP is installed. States are held to results from the Chesapeake Bay Program's Watershed Model that incorporates some of the BMP lag time into the equation, Keppler said, "with the anticipation that over time water quality will actually improve and will show measurable results in our water quality monitoring." Other keys Keppler mentioned to helping Maryland agriculture meet its 2017 goals include continuing with annual practices, like cover crops, and having farms continue with their nutrient management plans. The 95 percent toward 2017 nitrogen goal and 51 percent for the phosphorus goal are figures as of 2013, said Lindsay Dodd, programs assistant with Maryland Grain Producers. "We do not yet have, officially, numbers from our 2014 progress, and so we're not sure what the updated numbers look like for our TMDL (Total Maximum Daily Load) numbers," Dodd said. The Bay model is in an "interesting position" at this point, Dodd said. She said that Maryland still operates under the Watershed Model 5.3.2, and an upgrade of that, Watershed Model 6.0, is being crafted for years 2015 and beyond. But, simultaneously, 2014 numbers are being worked on, she said. Depending on what changes are made in the model, "all these numbers for 2015 might change again," she said. Dodd said there are some aspects of the Bay model that impact the state's ability to reach its nutrient reduction goals and accurately reflect nutrient reductions being achieved. The Watershed Model uses a variety of input data, like land use, best management practices and manure loads, among others. Dodd said that, for example, there are BMPs farmers are using that aren't getting credit in the Bay model because they have yet to be approved, which generally takes about two years because BMPs have to go through an expert panel review process. "I'm not saying it would change the 2017 numbers. It's not really an accurate depiction of the load reduction that's being achieved by agriculture because not all our BMPs are being accounted," Dodd said. Keppler said MDA is actively working with the EPA to establish nutrient reduction efficiencies and have BMPs not currently being accounted for approved as part of the Bay model. Another example Dodd mentioned has to do with land use data from the 2012 U.S. Department of Agriculture census. She said the Chesapeake Bay Program updated the land use acres based on the 2012 numbers from the census, but that figure comes from blended land use for corn, soybeans, wheat and other commodity crops. "So what they're looking at is they're saying that we had an increase in crop acres in 2012, and because the way they look at it is a blended crop acres ... they are projecting that our nitrogen load will increase because of that application rate for corn," Dodd said. "However, if you dig into the numbers from the census, our real increase came from wheat." Dodd said nitrogen is not applied to wheat, which is a nitrogen uptake crop planted mostly as a cover crop. "If you're blending all these different kinds of crops, and assuming standard fertilizer application, you don't apply phosphorus to soybeans, you don't apply nitrogen to wheat, but because corn is included in those acres, that's where the productive increase is coming from," she said. Tweet |
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